Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030851
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO
   THE OZARK REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
   PLAINS STATES DURING DAY ONE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE CA/ORE
   COAST. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE
   WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING OF
   THE LEE CYCLONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
   AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS CYCLONE/LEE TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG SSWLY
   WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE
   COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   READINGS AND RECENT-LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT/DORMANT VEGETATION
   WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA OF
   THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM...MUCH OF
   NRN/WRN TX...MOST OF OK/WRN AR...SRN/ERN KS AND WRN MO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...SUSTAINED
   SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH...SHORT-LONG TERM
   DROUGHT
   
   AS A RESULT OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE...A STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC
   LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LEE
   CYCLONE INTENSIFIES...SO WILL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER
   SRN PLAINS AND OZARK MTNS REGION. IN MOST OF THIS REGION...A STRONG
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO EXIST. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING OF THE
   LOW LEVEL JET...SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED
   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT. VERY WARM AIR IN THE 1
   KM LAYER /+20-22 C AT 850 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
   ABOVE NORMAL /IN THE 80S/ OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
   IS OVER FORECASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH
   OF WRN OK/KS...AND EXPECT SURFACE DEWPTS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S
   ...WITH CONSEQUENT MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER
   PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CUT-OFF TO EXTENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
   READINGS WINDS FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN TX AND CENTRAL AR WHERE LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR.
   
   FURTHER WEST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN TX AND PORTIONS OF ERN
   NM...MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
   MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN RH READINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT EVEN
   WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
   REGION DURING THE DAY. THE DEGREE OF STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
   DORMANT VEGETATION DUE TO RECENT FALL FREEZES SHOULD SUPPORT A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
   
   ....SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE...
   SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL
   OCCUR AS STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BENEATH STRONG MID
   LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD
   COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
   TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY LOW /60S-LOWER 70S/ THAT
   CONSEQUENT MIN RH READINGS WILL BE AROUND 20 PERCENT PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE
   MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A STRONG
   PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY
   COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN READINGS FURTHER SW /HIGHS IN THE 70S/
   COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN THE 35-45 F RANGE WILL LEAD TO MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 30-35 PERCENT.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   UNDER PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH READINGS
   FROM 25-35 PERCENT WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE REGION.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/03/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030857
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE NATION ON DAY TWO.
    THE LACK OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS
   AS WILL BE THE CASE ON DAY ONE. IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   WILL MOVE SWD AND EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER OK NEWD INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A WEAKER PRESSURE
   GRADIENT IS LIKELY. THUS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LESS ON DAY
   TWO OVER THE SRN PLAIN/MS VALLEY REGION. WHERE WINDS ARE FCST TO BE
   MARGINALLY CRITICAL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH /FROM NORTH TX NEWD
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS WITH
   DEWPTS IN THE 45-55 F RANGE SHOULD PRECLUDE RH READINGS FROM FALLING
   LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. FURTHER WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN ON DAY ONE AS MID LEVEL
   FLOW DECREASES. THUS ATTM...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED OVER THE CONUS.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   PROXIMITY OF SURFACE FRONT...WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET/PRESSURE GRADIENT
   SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH
   GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. IN ADDITION...OVER THE LOWER PLAINS /GENERALLY
   EAST OF I-35/ THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AS
   SURFACE RIDGING DIMINISHES OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SLY FLOW
   TAPS THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE
   INTO THE 45-55 F RANGE...MIN RH READINGS WILL BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
   INCREASING...WITH SSELY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH. LACK OF MIN RH
   READINGS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW MOISTURE
   INCREASE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/03/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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