Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070951
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NE NM/SRN KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE AND
NCNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY BY EARLY TUE. ALSO APPARENT IN SATELLITE LOOPS IS A JET MAX
NOW ACROSS SRN CA WHICH WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATER
TODAY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN WY INTO SE CO WILL
STRENGTHEN AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY AFTN. SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE RATHER
HIGH...COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NE NM/SRN KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE AND
NCNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/DRY FUELS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY
BY 15-20 DEGREES. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLE. ALSO...40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK/SE KS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION WILL BREAK BY MID-LATE MORNING ALLOWING
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX TO THE SFC. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH SEEM LIKELY. RECENT 10 HR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BETWEEN 5-6 PERCENT AND HIGH KBDI VALUES IN THE
500-700 RANGE ARE INDICATIVE OF THE DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES. SFC DEWPOINTS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS/TX PANHANDLE ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. BUT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S/50S INVOF OF THE
RED RIVER AND IN THE 60S ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WITH STRONG SLY WINDS
TODAY...RAPID MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS KS/OK. EVEN WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...INCREASING TO AROUND 40-50 PERCENT. ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NE NM...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HIGH RH VALUES.
..TAYLOR.. 11/07/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070952
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NE NM/TX PANHANDLE/SRN
KS/OK/NCNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW BY EARLY WED MORNING. SRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...WHILE IN THE NRN STREAM...IMPULSE NOW
OFF THE BC COAST WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NE NM/TX PANHANDLE/SRN
KS/OK/NCNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SLY WINDS 15-25 MPH/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/DRY FUELS
ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES IN OK/NCNTRL
TX AND KS...THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
COMPENSATE. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY LATE MORNING/AFTN. MINIMUM RH VALUES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM WILL RANGE FROM 20-25 PERCENT WITH STRONGER
WINDS THAN MONDAY. FUELS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
..TAYLOR.. 11/07/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home