Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100846
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY AS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES REACHING
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OUT
WEST...ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WHICH HELPS EASTERN PACIFIC CUTOFF ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA... ARIZONA...AND THE GREAT BASIN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING ADVANCES SOUTHWARD REACHING THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEGIN
TO FALL THEREAFTER. THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING DRY AIRMASS MEANS RH WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUNSET APPROACHES
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WIND BRING A QUICK
RECOVERY FROM THE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
...SRN PLAINS...
EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TURNS WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20
MPH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TODAY FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS COOL DOWN...AND REACH THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 20 PERCENT.
..BRIGHT.. 11/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 101006
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRIDAY AS CUTOFF LOW FORMERLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BECOMES ENTRAINED IN WESTERLY FLOW AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES
TO THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COOL WESTERLY
FLOW IMPINGE UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LEE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS MILD PREFRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPEADS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO TO KANSAS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIRMASS IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS MAINTAINS DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
MISSISSIPPI WHERE MINIMUM RH FALLS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND AROUND
25 TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS ALOFT KEEP SURFACE WINDS WELL BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
...NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MINIMUM RH /GENERALLY 25 TO 35
PERCENT/ WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
..BRIGHT.. 11/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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