Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130824
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL
   U.S...AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
   CANADA...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DIG SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
   RH LEVELS WILL RISE E OF THE MS RIVER DUE TO SLY WINDS AND
   PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM WRN PA INTO NRN MS
   BY AFTERNOON.
   
   OUT WEST...RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER SRN CA
   AND AZ...UNDER SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING. FARTHER N...LOCALLY GUSTY NLY
   WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN CA DUE TO N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT RH
   LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO MOIST FOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...OK AND NRN TX...
   A DRY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...ALLOWING RH
   LEVELS TO DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION TO LOW RH LEVELS...SUSTAINED NELY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20
   MPH. BECAUSE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
   VERY HIGH...BUT COMBINATION OF VERY DRY FUELS ALONG WITH LOW RH AND
   GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DURING
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOOD RECOVERY OCCURS OVERNIGHT WITH
   COOL TEMPERATURES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/13/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130956
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S ON MONDAY.
   NWLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE SANTA ANA
   WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN CA. FARTHER E...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
   OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL CAUSE SLY WINDS TO INCREASE
   OVER NM / W TX / WRN OK WHERE RH WILL BE LOW. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
   COLD FRONT WILL SURGE RAPIDLY SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...ENTERING
   NW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKING IT INTO SWRN TX BY TUE MORNING.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. DURING THE DAY...IT WILL
   BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND RH OF 15-25 PERCENT.
   OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...PRESSURE DIFFERENTIALS WILL
   INCREASE MARKEDLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWD THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN...CAUSING STRONG NELY WINDS TO DEVELOP. RH WILL REMAIN LOW
   OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE RECENT
   PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBILITY OF ONLY MARGINALLY LOW RH OVERNIGHT.
   AREAS OF SRN CA COULD BE UPGRADED IN NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IF
   CONDITIONS WARRANT.
   
   ...NRN CA...
   RH LEVELS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE MORNING AS NELY
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
   IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY WINDY...RH LEVELS MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH FOR
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT RH
   LEVELS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 30 PERCENT. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DAY 1 UPGRADE.
   
   ...ERN NM / NWRN TX / WRN OK...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY DUE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SERN
   CO. SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. RH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
   TEENS OVER ERN NM TO THE 30S OVER WRN OK. GIVEN SHORT TURN AROUND
   TIME FOR MODIFICATION OF PREVIOUS POST FRONTAL AIR
   MASS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT
   GIVEN MARGINAL RH VALUES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/13/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home