Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140858
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS REINFORCING
   UPPER WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE
   SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
   CAUSE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CA. FARTHER E...LOW
   PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS AND CAUSE SLY WINDS TO
   INCREASE...BEFORE A MAJOR COLD FRONT RACES SWD
   
   ...SRN CA...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST ON MONDAY WITH
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND RH LEVELS DIPPING INTO THE
   15-20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG TODAY AT
   15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
   THE PERIOD INTO TUE. THUS MOST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   BEGIN AFTER THE DAY 1 PERIOD ENDS AT 12Z TUE.
   
   ...NRN CA...
   DURING THE DAYTIME...NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. RH LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE 30-40
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WILL REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT IN
   AREAS OF DOWNSLOPING INCLUDING THE BAY AREA HILLS...AT WHICH TIME
   WIND SPEEDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY AND OVER 30 MPH. GREATEST
   FIRE THREAT WILL BE AFTER THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND INTO TUE...WHEN RH
   WILL BE LOWER.
   
   ...ERN NM / WRN OK/ NWRN TX...
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER
   WRN OK AND TO NEAR 20 MPH OVER ERN NM AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE
   N. MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT GENERALLY W OF I-35...AND
   WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND NM. MARGINAL RH AND WIND COMBINATION WILL PRECLUDE
   SIGNIFICANT THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD
   BRINGING COOL AND STABLE AIR...BUT ALSO SUSTAINED NLY WINDS OF 25-35
   MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/14/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140931
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN OK INTO NRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
   U.S. WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH MOISTURE E
   OF THE MS.
   
   TO THE WEST...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL
   AND WESTERN STATES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND LOW RH. STRONG N AND NE
   WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CA WHILE POST FRONTAL WINDS CAUSE CRITICAL
   FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN DRY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   STRONG WINDS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUE
   MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG HEATING AND
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
   UPPER 80S...WHICH WILL BRING RH LEVELS DOWN INTO THE TEENS.
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON MOST PLACES WITH
   MUCH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS. RH RECOVERY WILL
   BE QUITE POOR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS PERSIST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG N AND NELY WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND E WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE RH LEVELS FALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY.
   STRONG WINDS WILL BE ONGOING TUE MORNING...BUT FIRE THREAT WILL
   HEIGHTEN BY MIDDAY WHEN RH LEVELS DROP INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE
   AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH PERSIST. WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT
   OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT DIE DOWN COMPLETELY WITH RELATIVELY POOR RH
   RECOVERY IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - SRN OK INTO NRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT AND LOW RH
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN OK SWWD ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND
   INTO NWRN TX TUE MORNING...BUT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SWD. BEHIND THIS
   FRONT...VERY STRONG NLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING AND WILL INCREASE.
   FIRE THREAT WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM AND RH
   DROPS INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN LONG TERM DROUGHT AND LOCALLY
   DRY FUEL CONDITIONS...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE
   DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/14/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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