Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151013
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0413 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN OK/NORTH TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS...WITH
   STRONG/BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   STATES...WITH UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSING INTO THE WEST. STRONG COLD
   FRONT WILL RACE E/SE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   WILL REINFORCE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA...WITH SANTA
   ANA SCENARIO/GUSTY WINDS INDUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED
   FIRE DANGER ACROSS SRN CA. OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER INCREASE
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 10-11 MBS LAX-TPH. NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
   WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW PASSES
   AND CANYONS. STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES
   WARMING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWERING RH VALUES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
   WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH
   VERY POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG N/NE WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   MODERATE OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN CA OWING
   TO 1040+ MB INTERMOUNTAIN HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTY N/NE WINDS OF 15-30
   MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES AND
   CONTINUAL DRYING SHOULD CAUSE RH VALUES TO APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES
   THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. NEAR-RECORD AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE 70S AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
   INTERIOR NRN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG NLY WINDS AND LOWERING RH
   
   OWING TO INTERMOUNTAIN HIGH PRESSURE/STRONG GRADIENT...GUSTY NLY
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY OF
   FAR SRN NV/SRN CA/WRN AZ. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY INITIALLY BE MARGINAL...BUT WILL A DOWNWARD
   TREND WILL OCCUR ATTRIBUTABLE TO STRONG MIXING/SUBSIDENCE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 4 - SRN OK/NORTH TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS
   
   VERY STRONG AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
   FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS SRN OK/NORTH TX THIS MORNING. WINDS OF
   25-35 MPH WILL DEVELOP EARLY TODAY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS /40-50 MPH/
   POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ATTRIBUTABLE TO DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
   TRANSFER. IN SPITE OF COOLING POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES...THE
   MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND SPEEDS COUPLED WITH DRY VEGETATION AND
   SUFFICIENTLY LOW RH VALUES WILL CAUSE A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151022
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCNTRL/SE TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH
   TRANSITIONS EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH COLD FRONT
   PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY. UPPER RIDGING
   WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN STATES...WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   PREVALENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CNTRL STATES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/SANTA ANA SCENARIO WILL PERSIST ACROSS
   SRN CA ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL BE COMMON BELOW
   CANYONS/PASSES...ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE GRADIENT MAY WEAKEN /7-9 MBS
   LAX-TPH/ SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY. PERSISTENCE OF OFFSHORE GRADIENT
   WILL AGAIN YIELD WARM 80S TEMPERATURES...WITH RH VALUES LOWERING TO
   AROUND 8-12 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN
   POOR INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SCNTRL/SE TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH AND GUSTY NLY WINDS
   
   ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES /UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S/ WILL BE COOL IN WAKE
   OF THE COLD FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES OF
   15-25 PERCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL/SE TX WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE RATHER LOW RH VALUES...GUSTY NLY WINDS
   OF 15-20 MPH APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE OUTLOOK.
   
   ...NRN CA...
   OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS NRN CA
   OWING TO A SIMILAR WEAKENING TREND OF NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH
   PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD /70S/ AND RH VALUES
   RELATIVELY LOW...DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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