Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190746
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL AID IN REINFORCING THE
   LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXISTS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN STATES. MEANWHILE...
   SURFACE-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WRN HALF OF THE
   COUNTRY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT /INCREASING AFTER 20/00Z/ WILL
   RESIDE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO SRN CA...LEADING TO A
   CONTINUATION OF AN OFFSHORE /SANTA ANA/ WIND EVENT AND CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: NELY WINDS FROM 25-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50
   MPH...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT
   
   SANTA ANA EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
   OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INITIALLY TODAY
   THAN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN 15-25
   MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...NELY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
   MPH...STRONGEST THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WILL BE COMMON
   AFTER 20/00Z AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES IN
   RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN.
   IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...PERSISTENT OFFSHORE
   TRAJECTORIES WILL SUPPORT LOW /8-12 PERCENT/ MIN RH VALUES ALONG
   WITH POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
   VERY DRY AIR...WITH OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES SUPPORTING MIN RH READINGS
   FROM 10-15 PERCENT...WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
   WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN OVER SRN CA WILL LIMIT SUSTAINED WINDS
   TO LESS THAN 20 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL METEOROLOGICAL
   PARAMETERS APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
   AREA. 
   
   ...SE STATES INTO ERN TX/OK...
   DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
   TODAY...AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE ESELY. CONSEQUENTLY
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FROM PREVIOUS
   DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL WILL LIKELY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS /AROUND
   30 PERCENT/. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT /5-10 MPH/ IN THE
   PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SERN
   STATES...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY WINDS /10-15 MPH/ OVER ERN
   TX/OK. LACK OF STRONGER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/19/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190746
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF
   THE CONUS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT...MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST...AS A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
   SRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASINS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND LOW
   RH READINGS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN
   CA...AND NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER SRN AZ.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: OFFSHORE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25-40 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...STRONGEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
   
   MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE
   WAY TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS
   ARE THUS EXPECTED FROM 20/12Z TO 20/18Z...WHERE SUSTAINED OFFSHORE
   WINDS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW
   CANYONS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKER GRADIENTS
   SUGGEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 25 MPH. VERY
   LOW RH READINGS /8-12 PERCENT/ WILL AGAIN OCCUR THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   BEHIND THE SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE SRN
   ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASING ELY PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
   ON DAY ONE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. ATTM...SUSTAINED ELY
   WINDS ARE FCST TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING
   PEAK HEATING. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW RH READINGS /AROUND 10 PERCENT/ THE
   AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL AND A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...NRN CA...
   SIMILAR TO DAY ONE...LACK OF STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. HOWEVER...MIN RH READINGS
   AROUND 10 PERCENT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/19/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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