Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200836
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF
   THE NATION. NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
   MOVE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL REINFORCE A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT...MODERATE
   OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN CA. COMBINED WITH LOW RH
   READINGS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVER HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF SRN CA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CA/SOUTHWEST...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
   INSUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED ENELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   TO 40 MPH EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT
   
   MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE
   WAY TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS
   ARE THUS EXPECTED FROM 20/12Z TO 20/18Z...WHERE SUSTAINED OFFSHORE
   WINDS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW
   CANYONS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKER GRADIENTS
   SUGGEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 25 MPH. VERY
   LOW RH READINGS /8-12 PERCENT/ WILL AGAIN OCCUR THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
   LACK OF STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRECLUDE SUSTAINED WINDS
   ABOVE 20 MPH OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...LIMITING A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER AREA. HOWEVER PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS...MIN RH
   READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT...WILL AGAIN LEAD TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
   
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   BEHIND THE SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
   DOWN THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE AN
   INCREASING E-W PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ERN/SRN AZ. ATTM...SUSTAINED
   ELY WINDS ARE FCST TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 15-20 MPH DURING THE MORNING
   HRS...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO BELOW 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WHEN MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT...MODERATE NWLY WINDS
   FROM 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS
   DIMINISH WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC LOW CENTER OFF THE COAST. GIVEN
   MARGINAL RH READINGS FROM 25-30 PERCENT COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING
   WINDS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200838
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WHILE THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
   SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/PAC NW. THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
   WEATHER RESULT WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS OVER
   MUCH OF CA. LOW RH READINGS WILL STILL BE PRESENT...LEADING TO
   EXTREMELY HIGH FIRE DANGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. DRY NWLY FLOW
   WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE
   DANGER...ALBEIT MITIGATED BY THE LACK OF MODERATE OR STRONG WINDS.
   MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
   OF THE NATION...WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH RH READINGS
   WILL EXIST.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-25 MPH DURING THE FIRST FEW HRS
   OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD AID IN
   WEAKENING THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND ALLOW FOR CESSATION OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/OVERNIGHT.
   GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL AND MARGINAL NATURE OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 10-15 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES...AND LOW PRESSURE RESIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. GRADUAL
   WARMING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
   LEVEL FLOW COMMENCES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO BE ON
   AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPTS...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. LACK
   OF STRONGER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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