Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 220733
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
TODAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ERN 1/3RD OF THE
NATION...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. LOW RH
READINGS WILL AGAIN BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AS A RESULT OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...DRY MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS STATES. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN WARM TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS
5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE LOW RH READINGS...LACK OF MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER
THIS REGION.
...SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
AFTERNOON WNWLY WINDS FROM 5-15 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL
AID IN GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVELS WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW DEWPTS...CONSEQUENT RH
READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW...OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.
...CA...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIMITED TODAY DUE TO PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE. DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST...THE MARINE LAYER IS FCST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT
MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL STILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. LACK OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 220733
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST DURING DAY ONE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS
NWRN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST...AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
COUPLED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGERS AND AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE APPARENT.
...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WSWLY SFC
WINDS OVER THE AREA. FCST WIND SPEEDS ARE FROM 10-20 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KS/SRN NEB...CLOSER TO THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA. WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN NRN NEB TO THE LOWER 80S IN
CENTRAL TX. ALONG WITH LOW DEWPT READINGS...MIN RH READINGS WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT /LOWEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS/. PORTIONS
OF THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SERN STATES...
SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE GULF AND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE RETURN
/LOW DEWPTS/ COMBINED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MIN
RH READINGS FROM 30-40 PERCENT. GIVEN RECENT WETTING RAINFALL AND
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home