Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270823
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   TEXAS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
   INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET PLUNGES
   SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD. LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS STRONG
   COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND U.S./MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR EAST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
   THE PERIOD...WHILE VERY DRY AIR MASS AND STRONG WINDS PLUNGE INTO
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TURNS LOW LEVEL FLOW OFFSHORE OVER
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   TEXAS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: EXTREMELY WINDY AND DRY
   
   PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
   SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING BRINGING A VERY DRY AIR MASS TO WESTERN
   AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL TEXAS. CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   PRODUCES VERY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
   SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
   JET ENSURES MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND VERY LOW RH VALUES
   THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM MINIMUM RH OF 10 PERCENT OVER EXTREME
   SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO 15 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRY
   ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE CURED FINE FUELS SUCH THAT EXTREME FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18 UTC AND 00 UTC TODAY.
   
   AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
   NORTHWEST WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVER EXTREME
   SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID
   AFTERNOON...WHILE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA
   WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
   STILL BREEZY...RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND EASE THE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AFTER 00 UTC.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY AND DRY
   
   A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. DEEP AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF
   AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET LEADS TO VERY STRONG WINDS AND
   DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
   IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
   OVER THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT RH WILL STILL FALL TO 10 TO 15
   PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. 
   
   FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE
   PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
   REDUCTION IN SURFACE RH IN THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SUNSET...AS SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS GUST TO
   40 MPH AND RH FALLS TO BORDERLINE CRITICAL VALUES OF ABOUT 15
   PERCENT. DESPITE THE BORDERLINE CRITICAL RH...THE VERY STRONG WINDS
   ENHANCE THE THREAT AND WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ENHANCES THE
   OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. THE AIR
   MASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS ALREADY DRY
   WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. RELATIVELY STRONG
   OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE WINDS /20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH/ IN THE
   TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS PLUS VERY LOW RH AT OR BELOW 10 TO 15
   PERCENT LEADS TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 11/27/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270933
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE TOWARD
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
   FRONT SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON...AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
   THE NATION. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY
   MILD TEMPERATURES COVERS THE EAST...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
   OVER THE SOUTHWEST KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
   THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
   WEST MAINTAINS THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
   ANOTHER DAY.
   
   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS
   TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN
   ANOTHER DAY OF OFFSHORE FLOW WITH A DRY AIRMASS /MINIMUM RH AT OR
   BELOW 15 PERCENT/ AND GUSTY CANYON WINDS IN TERRAIN FAVORED
   LOCATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEPTH OF OFFSHORE FLOW
   DECREASES DURING THE PERIOD. FLOW ABOVE 850 MB SHIFTS FROM NORTHEAST
   TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS
   AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY LARGER EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH. LOCALIZED
   CONDITIONS IN TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS
   EARLY MONDAY...BUT TREND OVER THE DAY IS FOR LESS FAVORABLE
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
   NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DRY AND COOL AIR
   MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
   30 MPH. MINIMUM RH SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AS MAXIMUM
   TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S OVER FAR WEST TEXAS TO THE LOWER
   70S IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...BUT THE
   COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH IS NEAR-CRITICAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 11/27/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home