Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110735
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2005
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE TROUGH
   OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A REX BLOCK
   PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IN NRN SASK WILL
   TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THE LOW
   EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS IA/IL BY EARLY MON MORNING. AN AREA OF
   LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/IA/WI/IL.
   
   DOWNSLOPE W/NWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS. AMBIENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   WLY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN
   FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX/OK/WRN KS.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE/WRN AND CNTRL OK/SW KS...
   SNOW WHICH WAS ON THE GROUND ON FRIDAY QUICKLY MELTED AS TEMPS
   CLIMBED INTO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL KS.
   MEANWHILE MAX TEMPS REACHED THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SW OK. FORECAST
   HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S AGAIN...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
   15-25 MPH. OK MESONET SHOWED MAX WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY ABOVE 25-30
   MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THE
   PANHANDLE...SO GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AS WELL.
   
   DOWNSLOPE PATTERN WILL FAVOR ANOTHER WINDY/WARM DAY. MINIMUM RH
   VALUES WILL FALL AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND AROUND
   25-30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE SCALE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A
   LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR NEARLY TWO MONTHS. HIGH KBDI VALUES AND
   FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE SEVERITY OF THE
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 12/11/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110813
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2005
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PATH OF UPPER LOW NOW OFF CA COAST.
   HOWEVER IT IS CLEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING ON MONDAY...AS
   CA LOW MOVES INLAND AND REX BLOCK DISSIPATES. UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
   TRACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THEN MOVE EWD ON THE NRN EDGE OF
   SRN STREAM JET MAX. LEE TROUGH WILL FORM FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO
   THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
   BC/ALBERTA. UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
   FARTHER EAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   SRN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM WINDY/WARM WEATHER BEFORE WINDS
   INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 12/11/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home