Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260836
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CST MON DEC 26 2005
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATION TODAY.
   EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEMS WILL
   EXIST. ONE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR WILL MOVE EWD
   FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A
   SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
   AID IN INCREASING SSWLY WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
   ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND/OR HIGH RH
   READINGS WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER RELATED THREATS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM AND MUCH OF  WRN/CENTRAL
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
   30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   
   INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPENING TREND IN THE LEE
   TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL SWLY
   WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON. WELL
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG WITH
   SEASONABLY LOW DEWPTS WILL AID IN MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   IN SERN NM AND SWRN TX TO BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT OVER
   NCENTRAL/CENTRAL TX. GIVEN THE INCREASING WLY FLOW WITH TIME
   OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL NOT DIMINISH MUCH AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...
   TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND END ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...MUCH OF OK...
   AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES AND NOT FORECAST TO BE AS
   HIGH AS FURTHER SW...AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PREVENTING FULL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. IN
   ADDITION...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN FURTHER
   SOUTH IN TX.  THUS SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 MPH
   WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL
   LEVELS. HOWEVER...MIN RH READINGS WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
   /20-30 PERCENT/ GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
   TO MID 70S AND DWPTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THUS VERY HIGH DANGER WILL
   REMAIN IN THE AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 12/26/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260839
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CST MON DEC 26 2005
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
   ON DAY TWO. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG LOW LEVEL WSWLY
   WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
   RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF
   THIS FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A
   DEEPLY MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 KFT. THIS WILL AID IN
   MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS. IN
   ADDITION...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL
   AID IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE SERN
   STATES IN PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. LOW RH
   READINGS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER...BUT SUSTAINED
   WINDS WILL BE LOW PRECLUDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM...WRN...CENTRAL AND
   PORTIONS OF NRN TX...SWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
   45 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT.
   
   THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MID LEVEL JET
   AXIS...WHERE THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP
   LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG WSWLY SURFACE WINDS
   DURING THE DAY. DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN ON DAY
   ONE...AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...AFTERNOON HIGH
   TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE
   COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT
   WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. IF LOWER
   DEWPTS OR LESS HIGH CLOUD COVER OCCURS OVER THE AREA THAN CURRENTLY
   FORECAST...SOME OF THIS AREA /SPECIFICALLY THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   AREA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   WEAK SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
   ATLANTIC COAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOW
   DEWPTS WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE.
   GIVEN LACK OF SUSTAINED WIND OVER 10 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...NO
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 12/26/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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