Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310821
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND ERN OK, CENTRAL NRN AND
   WRN TX, SERN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN U.S. WILL INDUCE A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER
   THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL INDUCE WARM SLY FLOW TO
   DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING RH VALUES AS WELL AS GUSTY
   WINDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. TO THE WEST...A STRONG UPPER
   SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE SRN
   ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN AND ERN OK, CENTRAL NRN AND
   WRN TX, SERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: INCREASING SLY WINDS / LOW RH / WARM
   TEMPERATURES / DROUGHT
   
   ...SERN HALF OF OK / EXTREME WRN AR / NRN AND WRN TX / SERN NM...
   A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING RH WILL CAUSE CRITICAL
   FIRE CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER OK AND NERN TX WHERE WORST DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS EXIST. SUSTAINED SLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR
   OVER OK AND MUCH OF TX WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. FARTHER
   WEST...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
   SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX NEAR GUADALUPE PASS. RH LEVELS WILL RANGE
   FROM NEAR 15 PERCENT NM/FAR W TX WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 70S TO 20-30 PERCENT ERN OK AND NERN TX WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
   OF 65-70.
   
   OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT 15-20 MPH AS EFFECTS
   OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM ARE FELT. CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP
   KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE WITH ONLY FAIR RH
   RECOVERY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 12/31/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310821
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND ERN OK /
   MUCH OF NRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM OK CENTRAL AND NRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A FAST MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL FORM AND
   DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS KS AND NRN OK. A STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH THIS LOW AND WILL CAUSE VERY STRONG WINDS
   TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A DRY AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN
   PLACE...THUS RH LEVELS WILL BECOME CRITICALLY LOW DURING THE
   DAYTIME. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CA
   COAST MONDAY MORNING BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THIS SAME TROUGH
   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL AND ERN OK /
   MUCH OF NRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR WILD FIRES TO BURN OUT OF CONTROL WILL BE
   EXTREMELY HIGH SUNDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH. SWLY
   WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
   DURING THE DAY...REACHING SUSTAINED LEVELS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
   TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 70S
   AND LOWER 80S WHICH WILL ALLOW RH LEVELS TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE
   UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WRN AREAS TO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ERN AREAS.
   
   AS UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EWD...SURFACE WINDS WILL
   VEER AROUND TO A WLY AND NWLY DIRECTION DURING THE EVENING AND INTO
   THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
   LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT RESULTING IN SLOW RH RECOVERY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - ERN NM / WRN TX / WRN OK AS WELL
   EXTREME WRN AR AND THE TX HILL COUNTRY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / DROUGHT
   
   CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN NM / WRN TX WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER
   SUNRISE WITH WLY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. RH WILL LOWER
   TO NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. FARTHER SE
   INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX...WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
   RH OF 20-30 PERCENT.
   
   CRITICAL AREA TWO ALSO EXTENDS JUST E OF THE EXTREME AREA INTO WRN
   AR AND PORTIONS OF ERN TX...WHERE RH LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AT 30-40
   PERCENT AND WINDS WEAKER AT 15-20 MPH. FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY IN
   THESE AREAS THUS THREAT REMAINS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 12/31/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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