Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010859
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OK/NORTH AND NORTHWEST TX AND TX PANHANDLE/FAR EASTERN NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO/FAR
SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK/WESTERN AR/MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING
WILL REACH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE...NEXT
IN SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WET PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OK/NORTH AND NORTHWEST TX AND TX PANHANDLE/FAR EASTERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG W/SW WINDS...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RH VALUES
A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
OK...NORTH/NORTHWEST TX...AND FAR EASTERN NM. STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
VALUES...AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AMIDST EXISTING SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK -- WILL PRODUCE A VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
DANGER.
WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI...SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL SETUP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR OF OK/TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVE MOIST AXIS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX. ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY
STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH /WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH/ SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO
WESTERN AR...RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE/RESULTANT RH VALUES WILL
EXIST EAST OF THE INITIAL DRYLINE SETUP. A RATHER HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL NEVERTHELESS EXIST IN THESE AREAS GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE GUSTY WINDS...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SW/W DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND
CONSIDERABLY HAMPER FIRE CONTROL EFFORTS. AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON FROM FAR EASTERN NM ACROSS MUCH OF
OK AND NORTH TX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER SUNSET...BUT RH
RECOVERY WILL BE RATHER POOR THROUGH THE EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO/FAR
SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK/WESTERN AR/MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY W/SW WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST TX INTO FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. IN THESE AREAS...OVERALL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO
SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY MORE MODEST...ATTRIBUTABLE TO SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS AND/OR LESS FAVORABLE FUELS.
..GUYER.. 01/01/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010901
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK/MUCH
OF AR/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS ON
MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE THE WEST COAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK/MUCH
OF AR/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY W/NW WINDS
GUSTY W/NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL EXIST IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS EASTERN OK/MUCH OF AR/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA ON
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER /ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OK/ GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN
HEIGHTENED GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS...LOWER DEWPOINTS...AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
..GUYER.. 01/01/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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