Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040811
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN...CENTRAL/ERN
   TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE FROM THE
   RECENT ZONAL PATTERN TO ONE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
   RIDGE IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DIVES SEWD AND PHASES WITH
   ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...AN
   UPSTREAM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER
   THE WEST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH ONE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...GUSTY NWLY WINDS COMBINED
   WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
   TO PORTIONS OF TX...LA AND AR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF ERN TX...NWRN LA...SWRN AR
   AND PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL AND SRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT
   
   A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NWRN TX AND SRN OK EARLY THIS
   MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF TX TODAY AND
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
   COMBINED WITH ONLY MINOR COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
   ALLOW FOR MILD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NRN TX...WITH
   RH READINGS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AT SUNRISE. FURTHER
   SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR RISING DEWPTS OVER
   ERN/SRN TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE IN
   LINE WITH OBSERVED PROFILER DATA SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL NWLY
   WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20-25 MPH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE
   ARKLATEX AREA SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SCENTRAL TX.
   COMBINED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND MIN RH READINGS FROM
   20-25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH
   SUNSET.
   
   ...SRN OK...
   SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING
   HOURS...WHICH WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 50S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WINDS WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
   PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MODERATE COLD ADVECTION WITH TIME WILL
   AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPTS IN THE
   20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND 25 PERCENT. LACK OF
   STRONGER WINDS WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/04/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040813
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN TX...PORTIONS
   OF SRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL AID IN A
   REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
   FRONT...GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF TX AND THE SRN
   PLAINS. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
   WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER DEWPTS AND CONSEQUENT
   LOW RH READINGS ONCE AGAIN TO MUCH OF TX. THEREFORE...CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AGAIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN TX...PORTIONS
   OF SRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   TO 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT
   
   A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND MODERATE PRESSURE RISES IN THE
   WAKE OF A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL AID IN STRONGER NWLY WINDS OVER THE
   REGION ON DAY TWO. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN DAY ONE...WITH
   READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S...LOW DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
   AID IN MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT. GIVEN THE MILD
   TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WILL BE PRESENT.
   
   ....NWRN TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS AND SWRN OK...
   COOLER TEMPERATURES /MID-UPPER 50S/ THAN OVER THE CRITICAL AREA
   FURTHER SOUTH...WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
   REGION...DESPITE SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. HOWEVER...VERY
   HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST...GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED
   WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/04/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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