Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050853
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD AS A STRONG SYSTEM DIGS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. A MODERATE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALLOWING FOR
   OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTY NWLY WINDS. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOW DEWPTS WILL LEAD TO LOW RH READINGS. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE
   SRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARM/DRY
   CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST. OFFSHORE/ELY WINDS WILL BE
   MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER SRN CA AND SRN AZ...BUT RECENT
   RAINFALL WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SRN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
   TX...SWRN/SCENTRAL OK AND NWRN LA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT
   
   WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
   SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TODAY. EARLY MORNING PROFILER DATA
   INDICATED AROUND 25-30 MPH WINDS A THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
   WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
   TO BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...LOWER DEWPTS
   WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...WILL LEAD TO MIN
   RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST WINDS/LOW
   RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER A BROAD
   AREA.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN OK...MUCH OF SRN AR AND LA...
   THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.
   ALTHOUGH NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-25 MPH...MIN RH READINGS
   WILL BE FROM 30-35 PERCENT...LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN AZ AND SRN CA...
   ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20-30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF SRN CA TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD
   THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. RECENT RAINFALL WILL LIMIT ANY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST OVER SRN
   AZ...ELY LOW LEVEL WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD
   THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. SUSTAINED ELY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH ALONG
   WITH RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/05/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050854
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
   PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL UPPER SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW. A
   WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS
   SURFACE WINDS TURN TO A WSWLY DIRECTION. GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE
   FALLS OR GRADIENT WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE SRN
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
   FRONT OVER THE SERN STATES AND FLORIDA. MUCH COOLER AIR WITH BELOW
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION...PRECLUDING ANY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OFFSHORE/ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
   SRN CA AND SRN AZ BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.
   
   ...TX COASTAL BEND/FAR SRN TX...
   NLY FLOW WILL WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   RELAXES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THE
   AFTERNOON. THUS DESPITE LOW RH READING FROM 15-25 PERCENT...A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ...SRN AZ AND SRN CA...
   OFFSHORE/ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THROUGH DAY TWO
   AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SUSTAINED ELY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH
   ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA...WITH 10-15 MPH
   WINDS OVER SRN AZ. THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   WINDS WILL TURN TO WSWLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
   AVERAGING BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PRESENCE
   OF UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. LACK OF STRONGER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/05/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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