Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060856
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH
   THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL UPPER TROUGHS MOVING TOWARDS THE
   WEST COAST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
   STATES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. A WARMING TREND WILL BE A RESULT OVER
   THE PLAINS STATES AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES THE REGION. GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
   LIGHT...ALTHOUGH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS
   WILL AID IN HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS/SW STATES.
   FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD.
   NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF COUNTRY
   EAST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ...TX COASTAL BEND...
   NLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
   MPH COMBINED WITH RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT WILL PRODUCE NEAR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES/DESERT SW...
   WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH RECORD HIGHS...WILL OCCUR OVER
   MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY UNDER THE PRESENCE OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER
   RIDGE. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT...WITH RH READINGS FROM
   8-12 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
   /LESS THAN 10 MPH/...EXCEPT THIS MORNING OVER SRN AZ...WHERE ELY
   GRADIENT WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR. THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET TODAY.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
   THE REGION. SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES 15-25 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE MIN
   RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT...LACK OF STRONGER WINDS WILL LIMIT A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060858
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES WHILE BREAKING
   DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
   GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE SRN
   PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
   MODERATE WINDS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF TX...OK AND ERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...POOR RH RECOVERY
   IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING WLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING DAY TWO. INITIALLY
   ...SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. BY MID
   AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
   OVER WRN KS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID
   IN SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SUSTAINED VALUES OVER 20 MPH OVER
   CENTRAL/NRN TX AND OK. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF INCREASING
   WINDS...VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR
   RECORD LEVELS FROM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONSEQUENTLY MIN RH
   READINGS WILL BE VERY LOW...FROM 15-25 PERCENT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THAT MIN RH READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
   OVER ERN OK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW
   LEVEL INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASING
   LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...A WELL MIXED
   NEAR SURFACE LAYER...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL SUPPORT
   MODERATE WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. OVER THE REST OF THE
   SRN PLAINS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
   OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE ALLOWING FOR POOR RH
   RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR URBAN AREAS.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 PERCENT AS WARM TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 60S COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPTS. WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
   VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
   SURFACE WINDS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH AND A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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