Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070938
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST
   AND NORTH CENTRAL TX/PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO/CENTRAL
   TX/OK INTO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD...A PROGRESSIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
   ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
   TODAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI
   VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A DEVELOPING DRYLINE AND
   INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST
   AND NORTH CENTRAL TX/PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND NEAR RECORD
   TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES
   
   A VERY CRITICAL/PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX
   TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RH VALUES...AND
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY/CURED FUELS WILL LEAD TO A
   VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY FROM FAR EASTERN NM INTO
   NORTHWEST/NORTH TX AND THE WESTERN HALF OF OK. CONDITIONS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.
   
   NUMERICAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE DEGREE OF DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TODAY...CONSEQUENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND
   GUST POTENTIAL...WITH TOO OPTIMISTIC OF A PROGNOSIS OF AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES. DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ALOFT
   SHOULD YIELD 20-30 MPH S/SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL
   FOR 40 MPH GUSTS. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
   70S/LOWER 80S WILL BE QUITE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND RELATIVELY POOR
   RH RECOVERY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   
   IN SPITE OF THE TENDENCY FOR A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
   EVENING...RELATIVELY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE
   NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK/NORTH TX INTO AR AND NORTHERN
   LA...ATTRIBUTABLE TO CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AND CORE OF STRONG
   WINDS ALOFT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO/CENTRAL
   TX/OK INTO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   VALUES
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT
   WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO INTO CENTRAL TX/EASTERN OK
   AND FAR WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
   THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A HEIGHTENED FIRE
   DANGER...OVERALL CONDITIONS SUGGEST A COMPARATIVELY MORE MODEST
   THREAT.
   
   ...FL...
   CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 30-35 PERCENT FOR A FEW
   HOURS DURATION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10
   MPH OR LESS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071019
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0419 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO AR/NORTHWEST LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS ON
   SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
   MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
   STALLS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO AR/NORTHWEST LA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY SW WINDS AND/OR WIND SHIFT WITH WARM
   TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   
   AS COLD FRONT MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...GUSTY
   WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE A HEIGHTENED
   FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. OWING TO THE COLD FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS OF
   15-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TX
   INTO AR/NORTHERN LA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
   
   RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH
   70S/LOWER 80S COMMON. ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR RH VALUES WILL BE
   CRITICALLY LOW...RELATIVELY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD
   PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER RH VALUES WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS
   AR AND NORTHERN LA.
   
   GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS/WARM TEMPERATURES AND ANTECEDENT DRY
   CONDITIONS...PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 FIRE OUTLOOK.
   
   ...EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK...
   IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...RELATIVELY
   IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE
   AROUND 8-10 DEGREES COOLER IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
   HIGHER RH VALUES AS WELL. ALSO CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED...WESTERLY
   WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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