Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080826
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST
   INTO CENTRAL AR/FAR NORTHWEST LA/FAR SOUTHEAST OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   OK/SOUTHERN MO/MUCH OF AR/NORTHWEST MS/NORTHERN LA/CENTRAL TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI
   VALLEY WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVES SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX.
   ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
   OF THE ARKLATEX AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST
   INTO CENTRAL AR/FAR NORTHWEST LA/FAR SOUTHEAST OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW
   RH
   
   COMBINED WITH EXTREME/EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS
   AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO AN EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TODAY. THE STRONGEST
   WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR ALONG/EAST OF
   INTERSTATE 35 IN CENTRAL/EASTERN TX...AND ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE
   INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AND AR. SUSTAINED SW
   WINDS MAY REACH 20-30 MPH BY LATE MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35
   MPH GUSTS.
   
   WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WELL
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. RH
   RECOVERIES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY POOR...BUT WIND SPEEDS
   OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   OK/SOUTHERN MO/MUCH OF AR/NORTHWEST MS/NORTHERN LA/CENTRAL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTENED...THE
   OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN ACROSS
   THE IMMEDIATE ARKLATEX CORRIDOR...ATTRIBUTABLE TO RELATIVELY LIGHTER
   WIND SPEEDS AND/OR HIGHER RH VALUES.
   
   ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL OK...RH RECOVERY HAS BEEN
   EXTREMELY POOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY BREEZY SW/W WINDS
   THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NW THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF
   PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT. ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
   MIDDAY...THE ONGOING GUSTY WINDS AND WIND SHIFT TO NW MAY ADVERSELY
   IMPACT ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - EASTERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD
   20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE NM HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES
   OF THE CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
   WITH MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS.
   
   ...NORTHWEST/WEST TX INTO NORTHWEST OK...
   OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST/WEST TX
   INTO NORTHWEST OK WILL BE IMPROVED FROM SATURDAY...LARGELY DUE TO
   WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. NEVERTHELESS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
   MODEST BREEZES /GENERALLY 15-20 MPH/ WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT
   HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST TX INTO NORTHWEST OK.
   
   ...FL PENINSULA...
   ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE
   LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE
   AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RH
   VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS
   SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH OR LESS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080900
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL/WEST TX INTO
   SOUTHEAST NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
   ON MONDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS/ARKLATEX...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS SPREADING
   SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
   
   COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LESS ON MONDAY GIVEN
   LIGHTER WINDS AND/OR HIGHER RH VALUES OVER MUCH OVER THE REGION.
   THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL/WEST TX INTO
   SOUTHEAST NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE
   OF COLD FRONT
   
   WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
   SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST TX AND EASTERN NM ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
   INCREASED CLOUD COVER/COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...THE WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
   OF 15-25 MPH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAST FIRE SPREAD
   WITH ANY ONGOING FIRES. ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY TEND TO BE
   MARGINAL...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE GUSTY
   WINDS AND WIND SHIFT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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