Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 090658
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TX AND
SOUTHEAST NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AFTER AN ACTIVE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN THIS PAST WEEKEND...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
RELATIVELY IMPROVED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES EARLY THIS WEEK.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TX AND
SOUTHEAST NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH COLD
FRONT
AS COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL TX AND EASTERN NM
TODAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER RH VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...THE WIND SHIFT AND ENSUING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH /SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH/ MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR FAST FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY ONGOING FIRES. OVERALL
RH/TEMPERATURE CRITERIA WILL TEND TO BE MARGINAL...HOWEVER THE GUSTY
WINDS AND WIND SHIFT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE OUTLOOK
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST NM.
...OK...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 15-25 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS MAY POSE DIFFICULTIES WITH CONTROL OF ONGOING
FIRES...POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER/SUFFICIENTLY HIGH RH VALUES AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S/50S SHOULD
CONSIDERABLY LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OK.
...SOUTHERN CA...
WITH 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EXISTING
MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL YIELD LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EARLY
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA...IN ADDITION TO MILD 70S TEMPERATURES AND
REDUCED AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH/PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO DIMINISHING PROSPECTS FOR OFFSHORE GUSTY WINDS WITH TIME.
RECENT WET PATTERN AND MARGINAL CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIMITED.
..GUYER.. 01/09/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090659
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...IN
ADDITION TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RELATIVELY FAST
ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY.
...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
SOUTHEAST CO...
WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...CYCLOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MODESTLY GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN VICINITY OF SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...WITH 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION SINCE MONDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL /50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S/ WITH MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES.
THIS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
..GUYER.. 01/09/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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