Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100902
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   SYSTEM...MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN
   HALF OF THE NATION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A
   WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE SWRN
   STATES/GREAT BASIN. DESPITE LOW RH READINGS LIKELY AS A
   RESULT...WSWLY WINDS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER 15 MPH PRECLUDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   WSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
   A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MILD
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
   ALONG WITH SEASONABLY LOW DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO 20S...THIS WILL
   SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS NEAR 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/10/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100903
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
   TX...SRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL UPPER FLOW ON DAY 1 WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEPENING UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON DAY 2. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE LEE
   TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ON DAY ONE WILL INTENSIFY ON DAY 2. THIS WILL
   LEAD TO INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK WHERE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
   AID IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WSWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
   ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
   DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   AT THIS TIME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SWRN
   STATES...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX AND SRN
   OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT.
   
   INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW WILL AID IN INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS/TX THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EWD INTO THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY OVER PORTIONS OF
   NRN/CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE RAINFALL HAS
   FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
   SEEN LITTLE PRECIPITATION. COMBINED WITH MODERATE EVAPORATION ON DAY
   ONE AND INCREASING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ON DAY TWO...A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIKELY.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE...
   INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SURFACE WLY
   WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON DAY TWO. AT THE MOMENT...LACK OF
   STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LIMIT
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO LESS THAN 20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
   THUS DESPITE MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT...AREA WILL NOT BE
   OUTLOOKED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/10/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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