Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110725
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX AND SRN
   OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE
   AMPLIFIED AS A UPPER SYSTEM DIGS SEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND
   ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
   FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF THE
   UPPER SYSTEM...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF TX
   AND PORTIONS OF OK...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER GRADUALLY
   SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE
   INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL RESULT OVER PORTIONS OF TX AND OK WHERE MILD
   TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS COMBINE WITH THE WINDS. A SECOND
   AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX/ERN NM AS MODERATE WIND FIELDS COMBINE WITH
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS/WARM
   TEMPERATURES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX AND
   SCENTRAL/SERN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH...WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 25 MPH...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT...LONG TERM
   DROUGHT.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLY WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TODAY. COMBINED WITH A 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL SWLY JET
   DEVELOPMENT...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 MPH WITH
   GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
   MIX DOWNWARD THROUGH THE MORNING LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
   60S...OR 10-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 20S WILL
   LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT AS A RESULT. THE
   COMBINATION OF THESE DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
   WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - FAR SWRN TX...WRN TX SOUTH
   PLAINS/SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF ERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT.
   
   WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH...INCREASING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS COUPLED
   WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN MODERATE WSWLY WINDS TO
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT AND
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...REST OF WRN TX/TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/CENTRAL OK...
   
   BETWEEN THE TWO CRITICAL AREAS...SURFACE SSWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE
   AROUND 15 MPH. THUS DESPITE LOW RH READINGS FROM 10 PERCENT IN WRN
   TX TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN CENTRAL OK...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110727
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE WHILE MOVING FROM THE
   ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON DAY TWO. THE CONSEQUENT
   FIRE WEATHER EFFECTS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AND MILD
   TEMPERATURES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   SEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING
   THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
   EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WARM
   TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH THE MODERATE WIND FIELDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
   THE NATION...UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
   OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE AND SHIFT OF THE
   WINDS TO NNELY DIRECTION OVER THE DESERT SW AND SRN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM...WRN/NRN AND
   CENTRAL TX AND SRN/CENTRAL/ERN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY-NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-20 PERCENT...WIND SHIFT
   WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   
   A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
   REACH THE RED RIVER BY 13/00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE PRESENCE OF
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SWLY SFC WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FROM SERN NM/SWRN TX NEWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL
   TX. THE EWD EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   NEAR THE DFW METRO AREA SWD THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST. FURTHER
   NORTH...INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE SWLY FROM 15-25 MPH OVER
   SRN/CENTRAL/ERN OK FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING
   THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THIS AREA.
   COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO LAG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS
   TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF SRN/CENTRAL
   INTO ERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOW DEWPTS IN
   THE 20S AND MODERATE SUSTAINED/GUSTY NWLY WINDS...AIDED BY A
   MODERATE NLY LOW LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL SUPPORT A
   CONTINUATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
   SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN OK BEHIND THE FRONT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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