Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130903
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 2
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN AND SRN TX AND
   PORTIONS OF SRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ERN
   SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
   STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
   IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NWLY WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES OVER 35 MPH
   WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN STATES. DRY AIR
   AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO AID IN A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF TX AND
   PORTIONS OF SRN OK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ANOTHER UPPER
   TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER
   RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE 
   SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
   PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN
   TX...SCENTRAL/SERN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 35 MPH....MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM
   DROUGHT.
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
   AND AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. AN ELEVATED NWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS
   NOTED ON PROFILER DATA IN SCENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  BE
   LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SERN TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
   AVERAGING FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL
   RESULT...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL/ECENTRAL TX SWD TO THE MIDDLE AND
   UPPER TX COAST. ELSEWHERE OVER SCENTRAL... NCENTRAL/NERN TX AND
   PORTIONS OF SRN OK...WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND/OR SLIGHT WARM
   ADVECTION AND A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIMIT SUSTAINED
   WINDS TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. OVER THE ENTIRE
   AREA...MILD TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SRN OK TO THE LOWER
   70S IN SCENTRAL TX COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO 30S WILL
   LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT. AN EWD LIMIT OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST...WHERE AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN
   INCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
   PERIOD. BASED ON SURFACE AND RADAR DATA THE ERN EXTENT OF THE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM LONGVIEW SWD TO
   NEAR BEAUMONT.
   
   ...FAR ECENTRAL/NERN TX....WRN/SRN AR AND NRN/WRN LA...
   THE AREA WILL SEE DRY AND MODERATE NWLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A
   STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING IS ON
   AVERAGE 0.25-0.50 IN. THIS RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT
   TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE MIN RH READINGS
   FROM 25-30 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH.
   
   ...SWRN...CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF ERN OK...
   NWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TODAY...
   ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
   COOL /LOW-MID 50S/ THAT DESPITE LOW DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO 20S...MIN
   RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THUS A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/13/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130900
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR ADDED SERN U.S PARAGRAPH
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WRN OK/NWRN TX
   AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ERN NM...WRN/CENTRAL
   TX...CENTRAL OK...PORTIONS OF SRN KS...ERN OK AND NRN TX....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IN AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO
   THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER
   RIDGING WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS. WARM SWLY WINDS WILL
   REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES. COMBINED WITH LOW RH
   READINGS...ANOTHER CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION. SURFACE WINDS
   WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE DESERT SW REGION...LEADING
   CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN OK/NWRN TX
   AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
   TO 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT.
   
   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST STATES
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN A
   DEEPENING LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A MODERATE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL RESULT OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE TX GULF COAST. AS A
   RESULT...MODERATE SSWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA.
   THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE FORECAST
   STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET WHERE SUSTAINED SSWLY
   WINDS FROM 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
   CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE
   70S...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW DEWPTS
   IN THE TEENS WILL AID IN MIN RH READINGS AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE
   COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH READINGS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
   SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS SHOULD
   REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   LIKELY LASTING UNTIL 02Z.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - MUCH OF ERN NM...WRN/CENTRAL
   TX...CENTRAL OK...PORTIONS OF SERN CO/SRN KS...ERN OK AND NRN TX....
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
   30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT.
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...THE FORECAST PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND/OR LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKER. THUS SUSTAINED SSWLY
   WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. AS IN THE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
   NORMAL DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER. CONSEQUENT RH
   READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WRN TX/ERN NM/SWRN
   KS...AND BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT OVER SCENTRAL KS SWD TO CENTRAL TX.
   OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING UNTIL 01-02Z.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST STATES...
   AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
   WILL DEVELOP. RELATIVELY MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO
   LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE NEXT DAY ONE OUTLOOK
   AS RH READINGS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...REMAINDER OF ERN OK AND ERN TX...
   AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE
   FALLS/GRADIENT AND THUS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
   AROUND 15 MPH. IN ADDITION...LESS LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIMIT HIGH
   TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND MIN RH READINGS FROM
   25-30 PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   NWLY WINDS FROM 15-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN FL. AREA WILL SEE LOW DEWPTS IN THE
   20S/30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL NEAR 60F...AND THUS
   MIN RH READINGS WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT. GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING
   RAINS ON DAY ONE WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/13/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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