Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 130903
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN AND SRN TX AND
PORTIONS OF SRN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ERN
SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NWLY WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES OVER 35 MPH
WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN STATES. DRY AIR
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO AID IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF TX AND
PORTIONS OF SRN OK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN/CENTRAL AND ERN
TX...SCENTRAL/SERN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH....MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM
DROUGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
AND AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. AN ELEVATED NWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS
NOTED ON PROFILER DATA IN SCENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SERN TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
AVERAGING FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL
RESULT...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL/ECENTRAL TX SWD TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TX COAST. ELSEWHERE OVER SCENTRAL... NCENTRAL/NERN TX AND
PORTIONS OF SRN OK...WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND/OR SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION AND A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIMIT SUSTAINED
WINDS TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...MILD TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SRN OK TO THE LOWER
70S IN SCENTRAL TX COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO 30S WILL
LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT. AN EWD LIMIT OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST...WHERE AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
PERIOD. BASED ON SURFACE AND RADAR DATA THE ERN EXTENT OF THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM LONGVIEW SWD TO
NEAR BEAUMONT.
...FAR ECENTRAL/NERN TX....WRN/SRN AR AND NRN/WRN LA...
THE AREA WILL SEE DRY AND MODERATE NWLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING IS ON
AVERAGE 0.25-0.50 IN. THIS RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE MIN RH READINGS
FROM 25-30 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH.
...SWRN...CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF ERN OK...
NWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
COOL /LOW-MID 50S/ THAT DESPITE LOW DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO 20S...MIN
RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THUS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 01/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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FNUS22 KWNS 130900
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR ADDED SERN U.S PARAGRAPH
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WRN OK/NWRN TX
AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ERN NM...WRN/CENTRAL
TX...CENTRAL OK...PORTIONS OF SRN KS...ERN OK AND NRN TX....
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IN AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER
RIDGING WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS. WARM SWLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES. COMBINED WITH LOW RH
READINGS...ANOTHER CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE DESERT SW REGION...LEADING
CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN OK/NWRN TX
AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE TX GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT...MODERATE SSWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA.
THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE FORECAST
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET WHERE SUSTAINED SSWLY
WINDS FROM 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE
70S...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW DEWPTS
IN THE TEENS WILL AID IN MIN RH READINGS AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH READINGS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY LASTING UNTIL 02Z.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - MUCH OF ERN NM...WRN/CENTRAL
TX...CENTRAL OK...PORTIONS OF SERN CO/SRN KS...ERN OK AND NRN TX....
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT.
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...THE FORECAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND/OR LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKER. THUS SUSTAINED SSWLY
WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. AS IN THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER. CONSEQUENT RH
READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WRN TX/ERN NM/SWRN
KS...AND BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT OVER SCENTRAL KS SWD TO CENTRAL TX.
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING UNTIL 01-02Z.
...SOUTHWEST STATES...
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. RELATIVELY MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE NEXT DAY ONE OUTLOOK
AS RH READINGS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 PERCENT.
...REMAINDER OF ERN OK AND ERN TX...
AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS/GRADIENT AND THUS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
AROUND 15 MPH. IN ADDITION...LESS LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND MIN RH READINGS FROM
25-30 PERCENT.
...SERN STATES...
NWLY WINDS FROM 15-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN FL. AREA WILL SEE LOW DEWPTS IN THE
20S/30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL NEAR 60F...AND THUS
MIN RH READINGS WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT. GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS ON DAY ONE WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 01/13/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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