Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140955
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WRN OK/NW TX AND
   THE TX PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME ERN NM/SW INTO NCNTRL
   TX/CNTRL OK/SW KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
   CONDITIONS WILL PERHAPS BE WORSE ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY...AS POTENT
   TROUGH NOW OFF WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. OUTLOOK AREA IS
   BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH SHARPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXITING THE OH
   VALLEY...AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE
   TO STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS COMBINED
   WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN OK/NW TX AND
   THE TX PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/SEVERE
   LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SRN STREAM IMPULSE NE OF BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS NM
   BY AFTN...INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS TO 40-50 KT. AT LOWER
   LEVELS...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
   PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TX
   PANHANDLE/OK AND THIS MAY INHIBIT MIXING...AT LEAST UNTIL LATER IN
   THE DAY. FLOW AT 850MB IS FORECAST TO BE AOA 40 KT BY MID AFTN...AND
   SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER
   GUSTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...AS
   TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - EXTREME ERN NM/SW INTO NCNTRL
   TX/CNTRL OK/SW KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20-25 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPS/MODERATE TO SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   CRITICAL AREA WAS MODIFIED FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. IN
   PARTICULAR...ERN EDGE OF CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN MOVED WEST OF
   INTERSTATE 35 IN OK/TX...AND ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF ERN NM IS
   INCLUDED. RH VALUES ACROSS ERN OK AND NCNTRL TX /NOT INCLUDED IN THE
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK/ WILL BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND SFC WINDS WILL ONLY
   BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE. STILL...WITH LONG TERM DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS...EVEN OCNL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE
   THREATS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/14/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141032
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/TX S PLAINS/WRN
   OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/SW INTO NCNTRL TX/MUCH OF
   OK/SRN KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BY SUNDAY...TROUGH NOW OFF WEST COAST WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN. VIGOROUS SRN STREAM JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS SE NM INTO THE
   TX S PLAINS BY AFTN...AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 85 KT.
   MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
   LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP BY 16/00Z
   ACROSS ERN NM. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
   MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SHARPLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
   WILL IMPACT ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM/TX S PLAINS/WRN
   OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S/SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY...WITH EVEN
   STRONGER SFC WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
   THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
   SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
   MIXING...TO AROUND 700MB IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
   HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - ERN NM/SW INTO NCNTRL TX/MUCH OF
   OK/SRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO
   STRONG SLY WINDS. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RELATIVELY HIGH /ABOVE
   25-30 PERCENT/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND STRONG WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
   15-25 MPH WITH PERIODIC HIGHER GUSTS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
   THE VERY DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE FOR HIGHER RH VALUES. THIS
   WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
   PORTIONS OF SW INTO NCNTRL TX.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/14/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home