Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151003
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM/NW TX AND TX
   PANHANDLE/WRN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/SW TX THROUGH NCNTRL
   TX/OK/SRN KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
   TEMPERATURES...CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND PARTICULARLY
   DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. INITIAL UPPER IMPULSE IS MOVING ACROSS
   CNTRL KS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
   GREAT BASIN. LEE TROUGH HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS KS...AND SFC WINDS
   ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
   CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTN WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
   THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES ACROSS A
   LARGE AREA OF THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM/NW TX AND TX
   PANHANDLE/WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/SEVERE
   LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM AREA WIND PROFILERS /OK AND KS/
   INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2KM. TEMPS HAVE STAYED
   MILD OVERNIGHT...DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LIMITED DECOUPLING.
   GIVEN THE WARM START...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID
   60S/LOWER 70S EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE
   CURRENTLY AROUND 15-25 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/OK WITH
   PERIODIC GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. AS MORNING INVERSION BREAKS...DEEP
   MIXING WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH TO DEVELOP WITH
   PERIODIC GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
   LOWEST ACROSS NM/TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK WHERE THEY MAY FALL BELOW
   10 PERCENT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH...RH VALUES OF 15-20
   PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - ERN NM/SW TX THROUGH NCNTRL
   TX/OK/SRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
   RETURN TODAY ACROSS ERN OK/NCNTRL TX...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
   DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES /GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS/ WILL LIKELY
   RANGE BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT FOR ERN OK WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
   NCNTRL TX WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MOIST AIR. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
   STRONG AS FARTHER WEST...BUT WINDS WILL VARY FROM 20-30 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. THE COMBINATION OF SEVERE DROUGHT AND STRONG WINDS
   WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151005
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN OK/NCNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WIND
   SHIFTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. BY
   EARLY MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH
   PLAINS. COLD FRONT ON MON MORNING WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NW OK/SE
   KS TO A SFC LOW IN NRN MO. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
   THE FROPA...IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND MOST
   OF NCNTRL TX WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MON. IN
   ADDITION...WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO EVENTUALLY NW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK...WITH VERY GUSTY /25-40 MPH/
   POST FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN OK/NCNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
   70S...WITH MODERATE SW/W WINDS. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
   ABOVE 15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT AND THE WINDY CONDITIONS MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL AREA MAY BE
   MODIFIED IN THE NEXT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED FRONTAL
   POSITION.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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