Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170758
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TROUGH MOVES EWD TODAY...MID
   LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME N/NWLY AND INCREASE TO 60+ KT BY MID DAY. IN
   ADDITION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS NCNTRL
   TX...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW HUMIDITY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH GUSTY WINDS
   THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS THE
   CRITICAL AREA...AND MOST AREAS RECEIVED NO RAIN ON MONDAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED N/NWLY WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS TO 40 MPH/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM
   DROUGHT
   
   MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS NCNTRL TX TO MID
   60S FARTHER SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL FALL TO
   AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 25
   PERCENT. SOME AREAS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER
   HUMIDITY. THE MONDAY EVENING SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWED A VERY
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO ABOVE 700MB. WHILE THE MIXING HEIGHT
   WILL BE LOWER TODAY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL SUPPORT STRONG SFC WINDS TODAY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS SUFFERING
   FROM EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT /OBSERVED KBDI VALUES ABOVE 700/. THE
   COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS/LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
   DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...POSING A THREAT FOR FIRE
   SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171001
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/NW TX INTO NCNTRL TX/OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AT LEAST A COUPLE
   WELL DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATIONS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. THE FIRST
   OF THESE IS NOW MOVING INTO WRN BC...BUT THE SECOND WILL MOVE INTO
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER BY
   19/00Z...WITH THE GFS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE
   AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS PREFERRED GIVEN
   CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...AND ITS
   SOLN WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A STRONGER SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS BY
   WED AFTN. DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE
   STRONG SLY WINDS ON WED...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   EXPECTED YET AGAIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM/NW TX INTO NCNTRL TX/OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/LOW RH/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/EXTREME DROUGHT
   
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ON WED...RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES
   IN THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
   NORMAL FARTHER EAST. STRONG S/SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN
   WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. THE
   WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS ERN NM/TX HIGH PLAINS WHERE MINIMUM
   RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. RH VALUES FARTHER EAST WILL
   FALL BELOW 20-25 PERCENT BY MID/LATE AFTN. PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER AREA HAVE NOT HAD RAIN IN NEARLY 3 MONTHS...AND RECENT
   FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH TO EXTREME
   VALUES. GIVEN THE EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   PLAINS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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