Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280806
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MS
   VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AN AREA
   OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN KS
   INTO THE MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...A PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS
   FRONT...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER ERN OK/TX INTO THE MS
   VALLEY REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH READINGS ALONG WITH
   THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION....A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
   RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER RH
   READINGS OVER MOST OF THE SERN STATES. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
   THE NC/VA WHERE DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S AND MIN RH READINGS
   WILL BE FROM 25-30 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN TX/SERN NM...AND A
   PORTION OF NRN TX/SWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
   40 MPH....MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-20 PERCENT. LONG TERM DROUGHT AND
   LITTLE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL
   
   BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL COLD
   ADVECTION WILL AID IN STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINED
   WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS...SURFACE WLY
   WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
   PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAVE OR WILL HAVE SEEN LIGHT TO
   MODERATE RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY/EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS
   ANTICIPATED THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE
   DRY FUELS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN
   THE EXPECTED LOW RH READINGS FROM 10-20 PERCENT WHICH WILL ONLY
   ENHANCE EVAPORATION RATES WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS.
   
   ...NC/VA...
   AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SERN COAST EARLY
   TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SLY OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE OVER NC/VA GIVEN THE SFC WIND TRAJECTORIES.
   THUS DEWPTS ARE FCST TO REMAIN OR SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 20S BY THE
   AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...MIN RH READINGS
   FROM 25-30 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN
   PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
   INCREASE ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO REACH 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/28/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280806
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS
   VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY OVER A PORTION OF
   THE SRN PLAINS. COMBINED WITH MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15
   PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THIS
   REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED
   CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS SCT PRECIPITATION AND/OR LIGHT WINDS
   WILL BE PREVALENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - WRN TX/SERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM ON DAY ONE...A DRY CONTINENTAL
   AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  AS ANOTHER UPPER
   SYSTEM DIGS SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS/MS
   VALLEY...MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION. OVER THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
   TRANSFER OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
   SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
   OF WRN TX AND SERN NM BY AFTERNOON. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
   WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS
   AROUND 15 PERCENT AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
   FORECAST TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER DARK.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/28/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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