Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300824
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN
   STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW RH READINGS /15-25
   PERCENT/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MUCH OF OK/TX. GUSTY
   WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER ERN/SRN PORTIONS OF OK/TX EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. WEAKENING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
   COAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BROAD/WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
   PREDOMINANT OVER THE INTRMTN WEST....WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
   ABOUT 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   ...SRN/ERN OK...ERN/SRN TX...
   BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD
   THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. INITIALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH
   A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN OK INTO
   ERN/SRN TX FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRY AIRMASS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS AND TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING IN WRN OK...IS BEST HANDLED BY
   THE GFS MODEL. AFTERNOON DEWPTS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS OVER MUCH OF SRN/ERN OK...WITH 20S-LOWER 30S
   EXPECTED IN MOST OF ERN/SRN TX. CONSEQUENT MIN RH READINGS WILL FALL
   TO BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT...LOWEST IN OK. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
   WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH DURING THE
   TIME OF LOWEST RH READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON...A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/30/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300828
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON DAY TWO...AS ANOTHER UPPER
   LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE INTERMTN REGION INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL
   INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULTANT INCREASING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOD-STRONG SSWLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF
   THE SRN PLAINS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
   THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THUS LOW RH READINGS WILL COMBINE WITH
   THE WINDS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
   SRN PLAINS. FURTHER EAST...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
   SERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE DAY ONE COLD FRONT....NWLY WINDS WILL
   DIMINISH DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH
   WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SC/GA/FL. LOW RH READINGS WILL
   LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THIS AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN/NRN TX...OK AND ERN
   NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LEE
   TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. EAST OF THE LEE
   TROUGH...OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN AND CENTRAL TX AND MOST OF
   OK...SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE DEVELOP BY LATE
   MORNING. WINDS WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER SERN NM/SWRN TX WILL
   LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LESS /EXCEPT IN HIGHER TERRAIN/...GENERALLY
   AVERAGING AROUND 20 MPH. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS
   EARLIER ANTICIPATED BELIEF THAT DEWPTS WILL NOT RISE APPRECIABLY
   DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE
   EMANATING FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
   SRN MS VALLEY...WHERE DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
   PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW....MEAGER MOISTURE
   AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL MIXING
   POTENTIAL. THUS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
   FROM THE MID 60S IN NRN OK TO THE UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL TX...OR
   AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
   TEENS IN WRN TX/SERN NM...TO THE 20S IN MOST OF OK AND THE 30S IN
   NRN/CENTRAL TX...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
   THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS WITH THESE LOW RH READINGS WILL
   SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS...BUT A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/DIURNAL
   COOLING WILL LEAD TO AN END OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...SRN GA/SC/MOST OF FL...
   WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER
   AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. NWLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...TO SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. THUS DESPITE MIN RH READINGS
   AROUND 25 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/30/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home