Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310805
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AS
   ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
   SYSTEM...THE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
   RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODERATE
   WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
   ALSO EXIST OVER THE SAME REGION...LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   NATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EWD TOWARDS THE
   SERN STATES BEHIND ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS SURFACE HIGH INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WHERE RH READINGS WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW. WEAK UPPER
   RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN
   STATES...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM...MOST OF WRN/CENTRAL/NRN
   TX...MOST OF OK...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER
   TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SWRN STATES. THUS...AS THE CENTER OF
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY OVER MUCH OF THE SRN
   PLAINS REGION. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A LARGE AREA...EXTENDING FROM
   SERN NM/SWRN TX NEWD INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO...WILL SEE SUSTAINED SWLY
   WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
   /ESPECIALLY OVER WRN OK/. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE SRN
   PLAINS...WITH DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN WRN OK/NWRN TX....TO
   THE MID 20S IN NRN/CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK. WITH THE AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...MOISTURE RETURN /EVEN IN AN ELEVATED
   SENSE/ WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS STRONG
   VERTICAL MIXING OFFSETS ADVECTION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
   RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL/SWRN TX/SERN NM...TO THE MID 60S
   IN SERN KS/SWRN MO...MIN RH READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 PERCENT.
   THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RH READINGS AND MODERATE WINDS WILL LEAD
   TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE ANTICIPATED TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL COOLING AND
   MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE.
   
   ...NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   CLOSER TO THE LEE CYCLONE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER.
   THUS SUSTAINED SWLY-NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...HIGH CLOUD
   COVER WILL THICKEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF
   BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DEEPER MIXING. THUS MIN
   RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
   FRONT/UPPER TROUGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
   THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...WITH DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S.
   TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
   AND 60S. THUS MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT.
   ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICALLY LOW VALUES...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   WINDS WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/31/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310808
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES.
   BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE FROM
   THE PAC NW INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. BEHIND THE INITIAL SYSTEM AND
   IT/S ASSOCIATED DRYLINE...WLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
   OVER PARTS OF SRN TX LEADING TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. OVER WRN
   TX/ERN NM...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
   BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. BOTH AREAS
   WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT.
   UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH AREAS
   WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUES OVER THE SWRN STATES AND SRN GREAT BASIN
   UNDER THE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING.
   
   ...FAR WRN TX/SRN AND ERN NM....
   TO THE WEST OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH...INCREASING FLOW IN THE MID
   LEVELS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MODERATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ATTM...SUSTAINED WINDS
   ARE ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
   LOW DEWPTS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND
   15 PERCENT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER WINDS AND A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SRN TX...
   BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN TX
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
   AND WIND FIELDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT SUSTAINED WINDS TO LESS
   THAN 20 MPH. HOWEVER MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT APPEAR
   LIKELY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND DEWPTS FALL INTO THE
   20S/30S.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/31/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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