Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010752
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NEARING THE BIG BEND AREA THIS MORNING WILL
   MOVE INTO SCNTRL TX BY THIS EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
   MORNING EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SE NM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   MOVE SWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION/SW TX TODAY...WHILE A DRYLINE
   MIXES EWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS CNTRL TX TODAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE OVERLY
   STRONG. MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL ALSO KEEP THE
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE/SFC DRYLINE RATHER MOIST WITH RH
   VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...SW/SCNTRL TX...
   LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THIS REGION...WITH RECENT
   NFDRS FIRE DANGER CLASS VALUES RANGING FROM HIGH TO EXTREME. HIGH
   TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL /MID 60S WEST TO 80S S TX/
   AGAIN...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S EARLY IN THE DAY WILL YIELD RH
   VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT LEAST ACROSS SCTNRL TX. AS
   WINDS BECOME W/NWLY IN THE AFTN...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 30
   PERCENT. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND RH VALUES WILL FALL AS LOW AS 10-15 PERCENT.
   SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGEST IN THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
   WEST OF THE DRYLINE. 
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CAPPING
   INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC.
   MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
   AFTN...WHICH WILL INCREASE THREAT OF WIND DRIVEN FIRE.
   HOWEVER...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINED WINDS
   TO LESS THAN 20 MPH.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/01/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010753
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS ALBERTA/SASK ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT
   TO BECOME MORE NWLY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTHWEST.
   WINDS ALOFT ACROSS ERN NM WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KT BY
   03/00Z. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MIDWEST WAVE
   WILL SUPPORT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN ON THU.
   
   ...ERN NM...
   MODERATE TO STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTN ACROSS THE ECNTRL
   PLAINS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN DEEPLY MIXED
   ENVIRONMENT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
   FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT. GIVEN PERSISTENT LONG TERM DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS...AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IN NEXT
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/01/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home