Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020943
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCNTRL TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD TODAY
   AS IT WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MEANWHILE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
   STRENGTHEN FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. MID LEVEL
   FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60-70 KT ACROSS NM/TX...AS LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL BECOME WELL MIXED ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AND PORTIONS OF
   SW/SCNTRL TX WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SCNTRL TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S/SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH/LONG TERM
   DROUGHT
   
   THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
   70S AND 80S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 20
   PERCENT TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME W/NWLY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
   SFC WAVE NOW ACROSS LA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 15-20
   MPH...THOUGH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. RECENT KBDI VALUES ABOVE 600
   ARE INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
   
   ...ERN NM PLAINS/FAR W AND SW TX...
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
   THE REGION TODAY...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MINIMUM RH
   VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION...VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES /8-9 DEG C PER KM/ WILL ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
   AT MID LEVELS TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC. STRONGEST SFC WINDS WILL
   BE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND SW TX...WHERE SUSTAINED
   VALUES OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
   GUSTS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/02/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020945
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCNTRL TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT SPEED MAX NOW COMING ONSHORE ACROSS NRN CA/ORE WILL EXTEND
   FROM THE TX S PLAINS TO SCNTRL TX BY 04/00Z WITH MID LEVEL WINDS
   EXPECTED TO BE AOA 80 KT. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS NRN
   ROCKIES AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM...WHILE PLAINS JET MAX
   CARVES A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. BAROCLINIC ZONE
   WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS TX TO THE GULF BY EVENING...BUT MUCH OF SCNTRL
   TX AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
   MUCH OF THE DAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SCNTRL TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S/MINIMUM RH
   VALUES 15-25 PERCENT/SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TO AROUND
   15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO CHANGE DIRECTION AS
   COLD FRONT MOVES SWD...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE FIRE SUPPRESSION
   EFFORTS. RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/S TX. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED
   TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S/LOWER
   30S WHICH YIELDS RH VALUES FROM 15-20 PERCENT. THESE TEMPS ARE AT
   LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDY WARM WEATHER COMBINED
   WITH EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON FRIDAY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/02/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home