Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070939
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MAJORITY OF THE NATION WILL BE DRY TODAY AS LONG WAVE UPPER
   TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
   WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN W AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OUT WEST...A WEAK
   UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS LOW...
   ALONG WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A VERY WARM AND
   DRY AIR MASS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN CA.
   
   ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE SERN STATES BEHIND THE COLD
   FRONT WITH COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE WEAK LEE TROUGHING CAUSES
   SWLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN TX WHERE DROUGHT PERSISTS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES
   INDEX
   
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF
   30-40 MPH LIKELY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR
   MASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AS
   LOW AS 4 OR 5 PERCENT. AS A RESULT OF THE VERY WARM AND DRY
   WEATHER...THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY. RH RECOVERY
   WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT AS STRONG ELY AND NELY WINDS PERSIST.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIE ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
   ACROSS SC/GA/AL TO THE 60S INTO CENTRAL FL. THE LOWEST RH VALUES
   WILL BE OVER MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE FROM 25-30 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO
   LOW RH...NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KBDI VALUES ARE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE AREA...COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MARGINAL WINDS MAY CAUSE AN
   INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ...WRN TX...
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK BUT FAST MOVING UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES S ACROSS CO AND INTO NM AND W TX. WINDS
   WILL VEER TO SWLY DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH. RH VALUES
   WILL DROP INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF 60-65.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071032
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES BUT WILL REMAIN
   IN TACT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS WILL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
   MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ
   HELPING TO STRENGTHEN ELY FLOW ACROSS SRN CA.  FARTHER E...HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
   ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN STATES.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX
   
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED
   MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THU MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25
   MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND
   CANYONS. RH WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW FROM 5-10 PERCENT WITH VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   VERY STEEP WITH HIGH HAINES INDEX. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR
   OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WINDS AND MIXING.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY / DEEP SOUTH...
   WLY FLOW OF 10-15 MPH WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. RH WILL AVERAGE 25-35 PERCENT
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON / PEAK HEATING
   HOURS BEFORE RH RECOVERS QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. 
   
   ...OK / N TX...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OK DURING THE DAY ON WED AND WILL BE
   INTO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG
   WITH MIN RH READINGS OF 20-25 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 50S
   OK TO THE 60S IN TX. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS ARE MARGINAL...FIRE THREAT
   WILL BE ENHANCED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN RECENTLY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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