Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080957
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER SRN CA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE GREAT BASIN HIGH AND AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ.
FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SRN MS VALLEY BY THU MORNING...AND WLY
WINDS WILL BRING DRY AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES
INDEX
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS
OF 30-40 BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. RH WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
FROM 5-10 PERCENT WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LOW
TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP WITH HIGH HAINES INDEX.
RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WINDS AND MIXING.
...CAROLINAS / GA / AL / NRN FL...
WLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH WILL BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. RH WILL AVERAGE 25-35 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. LOW KBDI VALUES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
ONLY MARGINAL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH.
...SRN OK INTO NRN TX...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OK DURING THE DAY ON WED AND WILL BE
INTO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG
WITH MIN RH READINGS OF 17-25 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 50S
OK TO THE 60S IN TX. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS ARE MARGINAL...FIRE THREAT
WILL BE ENHANCED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN
RECENTLY...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NW TX.
..JEWELL.. 02/08/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 080958
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASING. FARTHER E...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION...KEEPING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN U.S. RATHER COOL AND
MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SWLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH.
...SRN CA...
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FIRE
THREAT ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. VERY LOW HUMIDITY NEAR 10 PERCENT WILL EXIST AS
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 80S. HAINES INDEX WILL REMAIN MDT TO
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AND RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN POOR NEAR RIDGE
TOPS.
...WRN OK / NWRN TX...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER ERN CO AND MOVE INTO NW
TX LATE THU AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND CAUSE SWLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 LIKELY W . MIN RH LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM 15-20 PERCENT OVER ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
CLOSER TO 25 PERCENT I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK/TX.
...CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS FL THU WITH NWLY SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH BRINGING IN LOWER RH VALUES OF 30-40 PERCENT. KBDI
VALUES ARE MODERATELY LOW THUS CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.
..JEWELL.. 02/08/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home