Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090752
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AND SRN FL...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN NM / NWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A POWERFUL UPPER
   TROUGH DIGS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. VERY WARM AND DRY AIR AND
   LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OVER SRN CA.
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH OVER
   ERN NM AND FAR NWRN TX WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND LOW RH.
   FARTHER E...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SERN STATES. LOW RH VALUES AND NWLY SFC
   WINDS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT OVER FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: OFFSHORE FLOW / VERY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES INDEX
   
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD
   ACROSS NRN MEXICO. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS
   OF SRN CA BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WITH WEAKER WINDS ALONG THE COAST
   DURING THE DAYTIME. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS SFC PRESSURES RISE DIURNALLY OVER THE
   PLATEAU. THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE OUTLOOK IS THE
   EXTREMELY DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 10
   PERCENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...WITH HIGH HAINES
   INDICES. RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN POOR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
   DRAINAGE WINDS WILL OCCUR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / NLY WINDS
   
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX
   OF COOL AND DRY AIR OUT OF THE N. SUSTAINED SFC WINDS NEAR 15 MPH
   WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAYTIME WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ALONG WITH MIN
   RH VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S. KBDI
   VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ARE MAXIMIZED SOUTH
   OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH VALUES OF 400-500...COMPARED TO VALUES LESS
   THAN 200 OVER THE REMAINDER OF FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - TX PANHANDLE / FAR ERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH
   
   A LEE SIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN CO AND WILL MOVE SWD INTO NERN
   NM DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING NWLY UPPER FLOW
   ALOFT. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG SWLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. STRONG HEATING AND MIXING
   WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S DESPITE
   STARTING THE MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. MIN RH WILL BE NEAR 15
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   LATER IN THE EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE
   AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO NLY AT 15-20 MPH. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...RH
   WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO 35-45 PERCENT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE INT SRN AL AND GA...
   IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
   RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 50S. IN ADDITION...NLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN
   COOL TEMPERATURES AND KBDI VALUES LESS THAN 300...THREAT APPEARS
   MARGINAL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/09/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090753
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   AND ERN U.S. WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN TACT OVER THE FAR WRN
   STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED OVER
   THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
   LOWER 48 BY SAT MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE
   PERIOD OVER SRN CA ON AS WRN FRINGE OF NLY UPPER FLOW BACKS INTO WRN
   AZ. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE FORMS WITH RAIN INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY SAT MORNING.
   RESIDUAL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FL HOWEVER BUT WITH LIGHT
   WIND.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: OFFSHORE FLOW / VERY LOW RH / HIGH HAINES
   
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA WITH
   OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
   BE GUSTY THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER INTO
   SAT MORNING AS MAIN TROUGH TO THE E SINKS FARTHER S AND UPPER
   SUPPORT FOR SANTA ANA WINDS INCREASES.
   
   DESPITE WEAK WINDS AWAY FROM THE MTNS DURING THE DAY...COMBINATION
   OF LOW RH...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL KEEP FIRE THREAT OF FIRE HIGH.
   
   ...CENTRAL / SRN FL...
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY OVER FL AS AIR MASS MODIFIES...WITH
   HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. POCKETS OF LOW RH WILL
   REMAIN ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MIN VALUES NEAR
   30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF
   LOW RH...FUELS ARE DRY.
   
   ...WRN OK INTO CENTRAL AND NW TX...
   IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI WITH RH IN THE 30 PERCENT
   RANGE WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. SUSTAINED
   WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH.
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S AND 30S.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/09/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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