Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 110953
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR N CNTRL/CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. IN THE WEST...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BUILDING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW WILL LEAD
TO STRENGTHING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / WARM
TEMPERATURES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PASSES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
COASTAL RANGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE DAY...ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
PRODUCE VERY LOW RH VALUES. MIN RH READINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. DURING SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SHOULD
CONTINUE. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S...THE
WINDS WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CNTRL AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / HIGH HAINES INDEX
DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE ROCKIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE THESE AREAS. THE
EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CAUSE MIN RH
VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT. THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT
WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO MAINLY THE 40S
AND WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - N CNTRL/CNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND A MODERATE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL HELP SUSTAIN BLUSTERY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF N CNTRL TX ON
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A COOL...BUT DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S AROUND PEAK HEATING. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROUGH SHOULD HINDER SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING. BUT BY
MID-AFTERNOON...PREVALENT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
COOL...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG WINDS
AND VERY LOW RH WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT.
..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/11/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 111111
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SW OK/N CNTRL INTO SE TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S.
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF AN INTENSE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A SECONDARY WAVE DIVING SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
SURGE OF STRONG NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS
FORECAST AS A STORM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW SUNDAY NIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / WARM
TEMPERATURES
ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AROUND
THIS TIME...ALLOWING NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH TO CONTINUE IN THE PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. POOR RH
RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LOW RH IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIN VALUES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10
PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
AND RH RECOVERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE POOR.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SW OK/N CNTRL INTO SE TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH
A SECONDARY SURGE OF BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 20
TO 35 MPH...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH JUST
AFTER SUNSET CURTAILING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...CNTRL AZ...
DRY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WESTWARD
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY
WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS WILL WEAKEN...CAUSING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AZ TO RELAX. THOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING OF NE
WINDS IS EXPECTED...SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH.
..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/11/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home