Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110953
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR N CNTRL/CNTRL  TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WILL HELP
   STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. IN THE WEST...A
   SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BUILDING
   SOUTH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...COOL
   AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW WILL LEAD
   TO STRENGTHING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
   CONTINUING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / WARM
   TEMPERATURES
   
   AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
   BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PASSES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
   COASTAL RANGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
   RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE DAY...ABOVE-NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
   PRODUCE VERY LOW RH VALUES. MIN RH READINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD
   BOTTOM OUT IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. DURING SATURDAY EVENING
   INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SHOULD
   CONTINUE. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S...THE
   WINDS WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CNTRL AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / HIGH HAINES INDEX
   
   DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AS
   STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE ROCKIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
   SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WESTWARD
   TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE THESE AREAS.  THE
   EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CAUSE MIN RH
   VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT. THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT
   WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO MAINLY THE 40S
   AND WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - N CNTRL/CNTRL  TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH
   
   THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND A MODERATE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL HELP SUSTAIN BLUSTERY
   NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF N CNTRL TX ON
   SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A COOL...BUT DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
   A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
   TEENS AND LOWER 20S AROUND PEAK HEATING. DURING THE MORNING
   HOURS...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   TROUGH SHOULD HINDER SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING. BUT BY
   MID-AFTERNOON...PREVALENT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
   REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
   COOL...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG WINDS
   AND VERY LOW RH WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111111
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SW OK/N CNTRL INTO SE TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S.
   ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF AN INTENSE SURFACE
   LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A SECONDARY WAVE DIVING SOUTH ON THE
   BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
   SURGE OF STRONG NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
   PERIOD. A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS
   FORECAST AS A STORM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / WARM
   TEMPERATURES
   
   ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
   SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AROUND
   THIS TIME...ALLOWING NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO
   AROUND 40 MPH TO CONTINUE IN THE PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. POOR RH
   RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LOW RH IS EXPECTED ONCE
   AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIN VALUES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10
   PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. WIND
   SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
   AND RH RECOVERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE POOR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SW OK/N CNTRL INTO SE TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH
   
   A SECONDARY SURGE OF BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND WIND SPEEDS
   WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO SATURDAY. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 20
   TO 35 MPH...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
   RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH JUST
   AFTER SUNSET CURTAILING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CNTRL AZ...
   DRY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WESTWARD
   THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY
   WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
   PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS WILL WEAKEN...CAUSING THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AZ TO RELAX. THOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING OF NE
   WINDS IS EXPECTED...SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WITH
   VALUES RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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