Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 121009
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0409 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SW OK/TX PAN INTO NC TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN HALF OF THE
   CONUS TODAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF AN INTENSE
   SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COOL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
   THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. A SECONDARY WAVE DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE
   OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF
   BLUSTERY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE
   AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN NORTHWEST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
   WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE AREA
   ENTERS THE NORTHWEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / WARM
   TEMPERATURES
   
   ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
   VERY LOW RH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH RECOVERY IN THE PASSES
   AND FOOTHILLS HAS BEEN POOR THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
   BY ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
   SLIGHTLY TODAY...SO WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY. 
   GIVEN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE VERY
   LOW RH...AND SEVERAL DAYS OF ANTECEDENT DRYING...A CRITICAL FIRE
   THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
   
   POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
   MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST SHOULD HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CA
   DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   SLIGHTLY AND CONSEQUENTLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
   WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY MORNING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SW OK/TX PAN INTO NC TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   A SECONDARY SURGE OF BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH AND A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
   MID 60S. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
   FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 10
   TO 20 PERCENT WILL PROVIDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WIND
   SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP JUST AFTER SUNSET
   ENDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
   
   ...CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTH MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ...
   DRY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WESTWARD THROUGH
   THE CO RIVER VALLEY. VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH
   MIN RH VALUES FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
    PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK
   COOL FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   OVER AZ TO RELAX. THOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING/VALLEY N/NE WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED...SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WITH VALUES
   RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/12/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 121011
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT OFFSHORE
   THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. A WEAK
   CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRIVE A
   COOL FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. WARM AND VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
   WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE
   WEST...THE LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY. THIS
   WILL CAUSE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE SRN CA/AZ REGION
   BY MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH / WARM
   TEMPERATURES
   
   SANTA ANA EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITH POOR
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY AND MODERATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
   ANOTHER WARM AND VERY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
   PASSES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S AND MIN RH
   VALUES RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT. SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL
   LIKELY BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AS
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT
   IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER SRN CA AND A PROBABLE END TO SEVERAL DAYS
   OF SANTA ANA CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - TX PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / STRONG WIND SPEEDS
   
   A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
   GULF COAST. IN BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH...THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST
   WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH SPEEDS FROM 20 TO
   30 MPH. WARM AND VERY DRY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
   DROP BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL
   FIRE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...TEMPERATURES
   WILL RAPIDLY COOL AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE MITIGATING THE
   CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/12/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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