Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200820
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ/SRN AND CNTRL NM/FAR W
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD ZONE OF W/SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
   WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NM AS FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE TX S PLAINS BY
   THIS AFTN/EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN AZ/SRN AND CNTRL NM/FAR W
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SFC WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MINIMUM
   RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW
   ACROSS CNTRL CA. THE NAM SUGGESTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL FORM
   WEST OF SANTA BARBARA BY EARLY TUE...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE
   PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING THE LOW TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE
   ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN. IN EITHER CASE...STRONG /60-70KT/ MID
   LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING BREEZY TO
   WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/NM AND FAR W TX. SFC WINDS
   WILL RANGE FROM 15-30 MPH AS THEY DID IN MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
   MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...AND AS LOW AS 10
   PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN OVER THE
   WEEKEND...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 60S/70S.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200823
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM/PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
   LOW OVER CA...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES
   WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE. AS LEE
   TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS...SLY FLOW WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT RETURNS NWD ACROSS
   THE GULF COAST STATES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN CA IN
   RESPONSE TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NM/PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH/MINIMUM RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   LOW SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
   IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 70-80 KT AS REMNANTS
   OF CA SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO
   NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES /MID 60S TO MID 70S/.
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SFC WINDS. THESE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE AMBIENT LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL INCREASE
   THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON TUE.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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