Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210906
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM/PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL
   AND SRN U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC
   COAST OVER SRN CA WILL MEANDER EASTWARD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
   DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE 
   TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS. A ZONE OF STRONGER W/SW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR
   THE MEXICO BORDER. FURTHER EAST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
   GULF COAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM/PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS SRN NM INTO NW TX
   AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVR SRN CA. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
   WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH VALUES
   RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THESE
   FACTORS...ALONG WITH BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
   WEEKS...WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE AREA.
   THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE CRITICAL THREAT
   WILL EXIST...DUE TO INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN
   FROM THE PACIFIC/MEXICO. THIS MAY LEAD TO MARGINALLY LOW MIN RH
   VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SE NM/SW TX. HOWEVER...THE
   AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALIGNED HERE WITH SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.
   
   ...SWRN NM...
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S COMBINED WITH LOW MIN RH VALUES
   AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT OVER
   THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THIS AREA...LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
   FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER E/SE.
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE LIKELY DURING THE TIME OF MAX
   TEMP/MIN RH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210953
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT EWD INTO
   THE SW DESERTS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE
   PACIFIC/MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF
   COAST TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAINFALL IN THE DEEP SOUTH. DECREASING LOW
   AND MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING RH ACROSS SRN NM AND WRN
   TX WILL QUELL THE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
   FURTHER WEST...RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SANTA ANA
   FLOW OVER SRN CA.
   
   ...SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY. OFFSHORE
   FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PASSES OF
   THE COASTAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
   70S...WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS
   WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
   DUE TO THE RELATIVELY MODEST FORECAST OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
   MARGINALLY HIGH DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION
   THIS PAST WEEKEND.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home