Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 210906
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM/PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL
AND SRN U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OVER SRN CA WILL MEANDER EASTWARD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A ZONE OF STRONGER W/SW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR
THE MEXICO BORDER. FURTHER EAST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM/PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS SRN NM INTO NW TX
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVR SRN CA. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH VALUES
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THESE
FACTORS...ALONG WITH BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE CRITICAL THREAT
WILL EXIST...DUE TO INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC/MEXICO. THIS MAY LEAD TO MARGINALLY LOW MIN RH
VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SE NM/SW TX. HOWEVER...THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALIGNED HERE WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.
...SWRN NM...
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S COMBINED WITH LOW MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THIS AREA...LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER E/SE.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE LIKELY DURING THE TIME OF MAX
TEMP/MIN RH.
..GRAMS.. 02/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 210953
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT EWD INTO
THE SW DESERTS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE
PACIFIC/MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF
COAST TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAINFALL IN THE DEEP SOUTH. DECREASING LOW
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING RH ACROSS SRN NM AND WRN
TX WILL QUELL THE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SANTA ANA
FLOW OVER SRN CA.
...SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PASSES OF
THE COASTAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S...WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY MODEST FORECAST OF WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
MARGINALLY HIGH DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION
THIS PAST WEEKEND.
..GRAMS.. 02/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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