Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260911
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD AND BEGIN
   TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE WEST...AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
   SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN STATES...AND SURFACE
   WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   AND DESERT SW AS MAIN LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE.
   
   SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
   EWD INTO THE MD VALLEY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY LOW
   RH. FARTHER EAST...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER
   THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
   FL THIS MORNING RAPIDLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING RAIN THEN
   STRONG NLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES.
   
   ...SERN CO / NERN NM / TX-OK PANHANDLES / WRN OK...
   SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE
   HIGH. COMBINATION OF WNWLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT / RIDGING ALONG WITH
   STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH MIN
   RH VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS CO AND NERN NM TO THE
   20S ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   AROUND 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COMBINATION OF
   MARGINALLY LOW RH AND MODERATE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF
   NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SRN NV INTO NRN AZ...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED
   FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH SOME AFTERNOON MIXING TO CAUSE SLY
   WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN SEVERE
   DROUGHT AND VERY LOW RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT...ANY WIND WILL
   INCREASE FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...CAROLINAS SWD INTO FL...
   NLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COOL AND DRY AIR WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA...INCREASING
   TO 20-25 MPH OVER THE FL PENINSULA. DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
   40S OVER NRN AREAS...RH WILL STILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. FARTHER
   S INTO FL...RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER AND NEAR 30 PERCENT NRN FL AND
   MUCH HIGHER OVER SRN FL WITH MORNING RAIN. WHILE RECENT RAIN AND
   COOL TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE FIRE THREAT OF MOST OF THE
   AREA...PORTIONS OF NC THAT MISSED THIS RAIN EVENT MAY SEE MARGINAL
   FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260913
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN TX / MUCH OF OK / SERN KS /
   SWRN MO / NWRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL CAUSE
   TEMPERATURES TO RISE WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW. GRADIENT BETWEEN
   LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN
   STATES WILL INDUCE STRONG SLY WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
   MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS AND OHIO VALLEYS
   AND CAROLINAS. RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
   HIGH PRESSURE AREA...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD AROUND
   WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN TX.
   
   MEANWHILE...STRONG TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BRING HEAVY
   RAINS TO CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NW TX / MUCH OF OK / SERN KS /
   SWRN MO / NWRN AR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / MODERATELY LOW RH VALUES AND
   ONGOING DROUGHT
   
   UPPER RIDGING AND NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL HELP WARM
   TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE 70S. A STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL EXIST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE. WINDS WILL
   INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 MPH FROM
   NWRN TX ACROSS MOST OF OK AND INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR. RH VALUES WILL
   NOT BE PARTICULARLY LOW DUE TO SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF...BUT
   THEY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH GIVEN STRONG WINDS...FROM 15-20 PERCENT WRN
   TX TO THE 30S OVER OK AND POINTS E. AREAS IMMEDIATELY S AND E OF
   CRITICAL AREA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG SLY WINDS...BUT THREAT IS
   DIMINISHED FOR THE SHORT TERM GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. RH RECOVERY
   WILL BE GOOD AREAWIDE AS SLY WINDS MAINTAIN NWD RETURN OF GULF
   MOISTURE.
   
   ...OHIO VALLEY INTO CAROLINAS AND NRN GA...
   IT WILL BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY AROUND NRN EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH WITH
   SWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IT WILL NOT BE PARTICULAR
   WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S BUT RH WILL BE LOW RANGING
   FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT KY/OH/WV TO THE TEENS AND 20S INTO PORTIONS OF
   SRN VA AND NC/SC. COMBINATION OF INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH WILL
   INCREASE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO SRN
   VA. RH RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...NRN AND CENTRAL FL...
   WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM ACROSS FL WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
   OVERHEAD...BUT RH WILL BE QUITE LOW FROM 20-30 PERCENT AND WILL
   REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW FOR OVER 6 HOURS. THREAT FOR FIRES TO BURN OUT
   OF CONTROL WILL NOT BE HIGH GIVEN RECENT PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
   WINDS...BUT THREAT OF FIRE STARTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED DUE TO
   DRYNESS OF AIRMASS.
   
   ...SERN WY / WRN NEB / NERN CO...
   MODERATELY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
   BUILDING IN. IT WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
   WHICH WILL CAUSE RH LEVELS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS...SUGGESTING
   ELEVATED THREAT OF GRASS FIRES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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