Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270811
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN TX ACROSS OK AND INTO SWRN MO
   / NWRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL CAUSE
   TEMPERATURES TO RISE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. GRADIENT BETWEEN
   LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN
   STATES WILL BE CAUSE STRONG SLY WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
   MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE ERN OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. RH
   LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA...BUT MOISTURE
   WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
   AND SRN TX. DRY AIR OVER SRN CA WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AS STRONG
   TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BRINGING RAIN TO CA...DECREASING
   FIRE DANGER.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NWRN TX ACROSS OK AND INTO SWRN MO
   / NWRN AR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / WARM TEMPS AND MODERATELY
   LOW RH
   
   FIRE THREAT WILL INCREASE TODAY DUE TO STRONG SWLY WINDS AND WARMING
   TEMPERATURES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. AREA FROM SWRN MO ACROSS OK AND INTO NWRN TX MAY SEE
   RH LEVELS DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING...LOWER THAN
   FORECAST BY MOST MODELS...WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER W INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND ERN NM WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. SOME HIGH
   CLOUDS MAY HAMPER HEATING IN AREAS BUT AGAIN STRONG WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN WX PARAMETER DRIVING THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...CAROLINAS / SRN VA / ERN KY / NRN GA...
   WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LOCALLY CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
   MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RH. RH LEVELS WILL BE VERY LOW AND MAINLY IN
   THE TEENS DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM UPPER 40S OVER ERN
   KY AND WRN VA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN
   GA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AS
   WELL. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS AS WELL AS LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN THE
   LAST TWO WEEKS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN VA INTO NC...FIRE THREAT WILL
   BE ELEVATED TODAY.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO FL...
   PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE DRY TODAY...BUT
   WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER ERN AREAS INCLUDING NRN FL. RH
   VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN FL AND THE FL
   PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS SRN AL AND GA. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
   STARTS WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN VERY LOW RH...RECENT PRECIPITATION
   ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEB AND SERN WY...
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WITH
   TEMPERATURES NEARING 70 DEGREES OVER NERN CO INTO WRN NEB. RH VALUES
   WILL THUS DROP TO VERY LOW VALUES...FROM 10-15 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON.
   FURTHER...SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
   OCCUR. ALTHOUGH DRY AND WINDY...FUELS ARE NOT VERY DRY DUE TO RECENT
   SNOW MELT.
   
   ...SRN CA INTO AZ...
   FIRE DANGERS REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER SRN CA AS OF EARLY THIS
   MORNING...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS SWLY FLOW BRINGS IN PACIFIC
   MOISTURE. STILL THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF STRONGER WINDS WITH LOW
   RH BEFORE MOISTURE LEVELS RISE...RESULTING IN RAIN. FARTHER E INTO
   AZ...RH WILL REMAIN VERY LOW BELOW 10-15 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING
   WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
   BE LIGHT MOST PLACES BUT MAY START GUSTING NEAR RIDGE TOPS IN
   VERTICAL PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/27/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270908
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006
   
   VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN NM / TX AND OK PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL COVER
   A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS STATES AS A RESULT WITH LOCALLY WINDY
   CONDITIONS. TO THE WEST...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
   IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AS WELL AS THE GREAT BASIN...AND
   WILL BRING RAIN INTO AZ AND UT LATE. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
   RESULT JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NERN AZ AND
   NM BEFORE MOISTENING OCCURS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NERN NM / TX AND OK PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WSWLY WINDS / VERY LOW RH / WARM
   TEMPERATURES
   
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND WITH
   INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG HEATING...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT
   THE SURFACE. WLY FLOW OF 20-25 MPH IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
   THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
   THE 80S OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...ALLOWING RH
   VALUES TO DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
   WITH MODERATE RH RECOVERY...AS UPPER TROUGH COMES OUT AND PRESSURE
   FALLS TO THE EAST.
   
   ...NEB / KS / OK/ NWRN TX...
   IT WILL BE A WARM AND WINDY DAY OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   PLAINS TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS
   OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER OK AS PREVIOUS DAY...WITH
   SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. FARTHER N...WINDS WILL
   BE SIMILAR WITH ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER KS
   AND WRN NEB. CRITICAL AREA OVER NM AND TX MAY BE EXPANDED FARTHER N
   AND E NEXT DAY 1 IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
   
   ...NERN AZ / WRN NM...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH
   AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
   RH WILL REMAIN LOW FROM 15-20 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
   WILL LIE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN TUE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
   MOISTURE WILL CAUSE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVER THE
   AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXTREME
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT OF
   FIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ...NRN FL INTO GA / CAROLINAS...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF AND
   FL...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AND WARM
   INTO THE 70S...WITH RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
   WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DEEPER MIXED LAYERS DURING THE DAY
   WHICH WOULD TEND TO HELP FIRE GROWTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE
   MITIGATING FACTOR TO SPREAD POTENTIAL...WITH LOW TO MODERATE KBDI
   VALUES SUGGESTING THE SAME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/27/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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