Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280934
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CO FRONT RANGE / NERN NM / TX & OK
PANHANDLES / SRN KS/ WRN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW TO THE WEST AHEAD OF DE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THUS PREVAIL FROM NEB SWD
INTO TX. RH LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE FROM ERN TX INTO FAR ERN OK
AND INTO AR WITH PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SERN STATES WITH CONTINUED LOW
AFTERNOON RH BUT LIGHT WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CO FRONT RANGE / NERN NM / TX & OK
PANHANDLES /...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES / LOW RH / MDT SWLY WINDS
/ DROUGHT
IT WILL BECOME VERY WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN THE CRITICAL
AREA REACHING 80 DEGREES OR WARMER. SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP RH LEVELS
LOW...RANGING FROM 10-15 PERCENT OVER CO AND NM TO 20-25 PERCENT
ACROSS E CENTRAL KS AND OK. LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING HIGH TO THE SE TO CAUSE SWLY SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. A FEW AREAS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK MAY SEE RH LEVELS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
...NEB / NERN CO / NRN KS...
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THE MITIGATING FACTORS
BEING WEAKER WINDS WHERE IT HAS BEEN DRIEST. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT
BEEN MUCH PRECIPITATION RECENTLY...SOME AREAS SUCH AS SERN WY AND
FAR WRN NEB HAVE HAD RECENT SNOW MELT WHICH HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE
GROUND MOIST. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SPEEDS
OF 20-30 MPH. EVEN SO...GIVEN EXTREME DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY...A GRASS FIRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LESS
THAN IN CRITICAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
...SERN STATES...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES OVER
SRN AL FL GA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
AND 70S. AVERAGE RH WILL BE FROM 20-25 PERCENT...EXCEPT INCREASING
TO NEAR 35 PERCENT INLAND S FL. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS VERY
DRY...WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AT UNDER 10 MPH. IN
ADDITION...KBDI VALUES OVER THE REGION ARE NOT VERY HIGH SUGGESTING
LIMITED THREAT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SRN FL WITH VALUES OVER
500...BUT RH VALUES WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW THERE.
...NERN AZ INTO FAR WRN NM...
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND MAY COMBINE
WITH LOW RH VALUES FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES. SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH RH VALUES 15-20 PERCENT. INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL HOWEVER...WITH SOME RAIN FORECAST LATE
IN THE DAY AS WELL.
..JEWELL.. 02/28/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280934
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM / MTNS OF FAR W TX / TX
PANHANDLE / CNTRL AND WRN OK / SRN KS......
...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE ALOFT WILL DAMPEN ON WED AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE EWD OUT OF NEB INTO IL BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT /
WIND SHIFT DRAPED SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH SHIFTING WINDS
ENHANCING FIRE THREAT. FARTHER N...IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT VERY
WINDY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...RH WILL REMAIN LOW INLAND FL AND SRN GA WITH SFC RIDGE
AXIS OVER FL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM / MTNS OF FAR W TX / TX
PANHANDLE / CNTRL AND WRN OK / SRN KS......
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / WIND SHIFT WITH COLD
FRONT NRN AREAS
HIGH PRESSURE OF MARINE ORIGIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO KS AND OK CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SWLY TO NWLY WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. RH WILL THUS BE LOW AT 20-30
PERCENT. TO THE SW...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE OVER NM
AND NONE OVER SW TX...BUT INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGH WILL HELP
PRODUCE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR 2O MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS
INTO THE GUADALUPE MTNS. THERE WILL BE GOOD RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.
...SRN GA INTO FL...
RH WILL BE LOW AGAIN AT 30-35 PERCENT MOST PLACES DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY INCREASE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND POINTS NW LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE RH
LEVELS TO RISE A BIT. MARGINAL KBDI VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST
MARGINAL OVERALL THREAT OF FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD.
..JEWELL.. 02/28/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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