Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280934
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
   
   VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CO FRONT RANGE / NERN NM / TX & OK
   PANHANDLES / SRN KS/ WRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
   INCREASING SWLY FLOW TO THE WEST AHEAD OF DE AMPLIFYING UPPER
   TROUGH. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THUS PREVAIL FROM NEB SWD
   INTO TX. RH LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE FROM ERN TX INTO FAR ERN OK
   AND INTO AR WITH PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE...HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SERN STATES WITH CONTINUED LOW
   AFTERNOON RH BUT LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CO FRONT RANGE / NERN NM / TX & OK
   PANHANDLES /...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES / LOW RH / MDT SWLY WINDS
   / DROUGHT
   
   IT WILL BECOME VERY WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES WITHIN THE CRITICAL
   AREA REACHING 80 DEGREES OR WARMER. SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP RH LEVELS
   LOW...RANGING FROM 10-15 PERCENT OVER CO AND NM TO 20-25 PERCENT
   ACROSS E CENTRAL KS AND OK. LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
   WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING HIGH TO THE SE TO CAUSE SWLY SUSTAINED
   WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. A FEW AREAS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
   AND WRN OK MAY SEE RH LEVELS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
   
   ...NEB / NERN CO / NRN KS...
   NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THE MITIGATING FACTORS
   BEING WEAKER WINDS WHERE IT HAS BEEN DRIEST. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT
   BEEN MUCH PRECIPITATION RECENTLY...SOME AREAS SUCH AS SERN WY AND
   FAR WRN NEB HAVE HAD RECENT SNOW MELT WHICH HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE
   GROUND MOIST. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SPEEDS
   OF 20-30 MPH. EVEN SO...GIVEN EXTREME DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR
   TODAY...A GRASS FIRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LESS
   THAN IN CRITICAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES OVER
   SRN AL FL GA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
   AND 70S. AVERAGE RH WILL BE FROM 20-25 PERCENT...EXCEPT INCREASING
   TO NEAR 35 PERCENT INLAND S FL. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS VERY
   DRY...WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AT UNDER 10 MPH. IN
   ADDITION...KBDI VALUES OVER THE REGION ARE NOT VERY HIGH SUGGESTING
   LIMITED THREAT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SRN FL WITH VALUES OVER
   500...BUT RH VALUES WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW THERE.
   
   ...NERN AZ INTO FAR WRN NM...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND MAY COMBINE
   WITH LOW RH VALUES FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE MOISTURE
   INCREASES. SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY IN THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH RH VALUES 15-20 PERCENT. INCREASING CLOUDS
   WILL TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL HOWEVER...WITH SOME RAIN FORECAST LATE
   IN THE DAY AS WELL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/28/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280934
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM / MTNS OF FAR W TX / TX
   PANHANDLE / CNTRL AND WRN OK / SRN KS......
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RIDGE ALOFT WILL DAMPEN ON WED AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
   MOVE EWD OUT OF NEB INTO IL BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT /
   WIND SHIFT DRAPED SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH SHIFTING WINDS
   ENHANCING FIRE THREAT. FARTHER N...IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT VERY
   WINDY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...RH WILL REMAIN LOW INLAND FL AND SRN GA WITH SFC RIDGE
   AXIS OVER FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM / MTNS OF FAR W TX / TX
   PANHANDLE / CNTRL AND WRN OK / SRN KS......
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / WIND SHIFT WITH COLD
   FRONT NRN AREAS
   
   HIGH PRESSURE OF MARINE ORIGIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
   THE PLAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO KS AND OK CAUSING
   WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SWLY TO NWLY WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. RH WILL THUS BE LOW AT 20-30
   PERCENT. TO THE SW...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE OVER NM
   AND NONE OVER SW TX...BUT INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGH WILL HELP
   PRODUCE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR 2O MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS
   INTO THE GUADALUPE MTNS. THERE WILL BE GOOD RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS
   TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.
   
   ...SRN GA INTO FL...
   RH WILL BE LOW AGAIN AT 30-35 PERCENT MOST PLACES DUE TO HIGH
   PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY INCREASE OVER THE FL
   PANHANDLE AND POINTS NW LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE RH
   LEVELS TO RISE A BIT. MARGINAL KBDI VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST
   MARGINAL OVERALL THREAT OF FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/28/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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