Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060550
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD
   AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES...AND ANOTHER
   UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARDS THE ERN SEABOARD. AHEAD OF THE WRN
   TROUGH...INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGH
   WILL PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SWRN
   PLATEAU/SRN ROCKIES AND THE PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE ERN
   TROUGH...INCREASING SWLY WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS WILL PRODUCE NEAR
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER ERN FLA.
   
   ...AZ/NM...
   INCREASING MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
   WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SWLY SURFACE WINDS. SEASONABLY LOW DEWPTS IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
   TO PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. MOST OF THE REGION
   WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
   PACIFIC DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT FULL MIXING
   POTENTIAL. THUS SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR
   MOST OF THE AFTERNOON LIMITING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...ERN FLA...
   AHEAD OF DIGGING SERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
   INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
   INCREASES OFF THE ERN GULF. MIN RH READINGS FROM 30-35 PERCENT WILL
   BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HR PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTURE
   INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY TO RAISE RH READINGS ABOVE 35 PERCENT.
   
   ...WRN TX/OK AND SRN KS...
   SSELY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE OVER SERN CO. A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S
   ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
   WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT. AVG WIND SPEEDS
   WILL BE FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060551
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE BASE OF
   THIS BROAD TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A
   DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX/ERN NM AT THE START OF THE
   DAY WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN OK BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
   OF THE DRYLINE...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SWLY WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY
   AIR WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE
   COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE SERN COAST...NWLY WINDS WILL USHER IN
   COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. NWLY WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
   FLA...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NM...SERN
   CO/SWRN KS AND WRN TX/FAR WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 30 MPH...LONG TERM DROUGHT...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT
   
   A SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL OCCUR ON DAY TWO AS MID
   LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW. WELL
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPTS IN
   THE 20S/30S TO GENERATE MIN RH READINGS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE.
   IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
   STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO.
   THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SFC SWLY
   WINDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NM AND WRN TX...AND PORTIONS OF FAR
   SERN CO/SWRN KS AND FAR WRN OK. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.
   
   ...SRN SC...ERN GA AND MOST OF FLA...
   NLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MORNING WILL OCCUR
   OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS IN
   THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-75
   RANGE WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT.
   
   ...REST OF OK/NWRN TX...
   TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...DEWPTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S DURING
   THE DAY. THUS DESPITE MODERATE SLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH AND WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...MIN RH READINGS FROM 35-45 PERCENT WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home