Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070947
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/SERN CO/SRN KS/OK/W TX AND
   NCNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KT TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS
   AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LEE TROUGH
   WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...WHILE DRYLINE
   BECOMES WELL DEFINED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
   NWD INTO KS. VERY STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
   MIXED LAYER DEEPENS. DESPITE RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE AREA
   TODAY. IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRE...A
   CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS WILL ALSO EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF
   SW/CNTRL OK INTO KS BY LATE AFTN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NM/SERN CO/SRN KS/OK/W TX AND
   NCNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/EXTREME
   LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHTENING DEWPOINT GRADIENT
   RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 20S IN NE OK TO NEAR 60 IN SW OK.
   MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ACROSS FAR W TX AND PORTIONS OF NM WERE IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER. ALTHOUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
   WILL HAVE HIGHER RH LEVELS DUE TO NWD MOVING WARM FRONT...SFC WINDS
   ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO 50KT LOW LEVEL
   JET. 
   
   DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SW TX INTO EXTREME WRN OK BY AFTN.
   WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY BEHIND THE DRYLINE...WITH MINIMUM
   RH VALUES RANGING FROM 5-15 PERCENT AND WLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.
   AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS
   WILL TEND TO VEER SLIGHTLY FROM SELY TO S/SWLY DURING THE DAY. IN
   ADDITION HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
   
   A LARGE NUMBER OF LARGE FIRES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND
   ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY/WARM WEATHER WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF ISOLD TSTMS DO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
   LOCATION WOULD BE FROM NEAR LAWTON TO WICHITA BY LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
   TSTMS WOULD BRING A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING.
   
   ...FL...
   POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH TODAY...ALONG WITH
   DECREASING RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT. RECENT KBDI VALUES ARE IN
   EXCESS OF 300 ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN FL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071049
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE NM/FAR W TX INTO TX
   PANHANDLE/EXTREME WRN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/CNTRL AND WRN OK/SRN KS/FAR W
   TX INTO NCNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
   AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED
   WITH THE WINDY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NM/OK/TX. WRN UPPER TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH AN 80-90 KT JET MAX
   AT MID LEVELS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY WED EVENING. AHEAD
   OF TROUGH...STRONG /60-70KT/ SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH
   OF TX INTO THE OH VALLEY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
   EWD ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. SFC DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL
   OK...WHILE COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
   STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INVOF OF DRYLINE...BUT A
   CAPPING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT STORMS UNTIL LATE AFTN/EVENING.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SE NM/FAR W TX INTO TX
   PANHANDLE/EXTREME WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-35 MPH/MINIMUM RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...WINDS WILL ALSO SHARPLY
   CHANGE DIRECTION FROM S/SWLY TO WLY AS DRYLINE MIXES EWD. MAX TEMPS
   ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH IS MUCH
   ABOVE NORMAL. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/ WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR W TX AND NM. THIS WILL ALLOW
   HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT /IN THE 40-50KT RANGE/ TO MIX DOWN TO
   LOWER LEVELS...YIELDING VERY STRONG SFC WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NM/CNTRL AND WRN OK/SRN KS/FAR W
   TX INTO NCNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   IN THE REGION SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WINDS WILL
   BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS NM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS CNTRL
   AND NERN PORTIONS OF NM...GENERALLY IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE VERY DRY /LESS THAN 15
   PERCENT/ WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER EAST...FROM THE
   TX HILL COUNTRY NWD INTO OK...MAX TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TUE
   WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX FARTHER EWD THAN
   ON TUE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO
   FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF OK SWD TO ABI/SJT.
   WINDS ACROSS ERN OK AND THE REST OF NCNTRL TX WILL BE STRONG...BUT
   THIS REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST AIR SO DOMINANT WINDS WILL BE
   FROM THE SOUTH WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES.
   
   ...ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARKS...
   STRONG SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION THUS
   RAISING THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S WILL RESULT IN A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY WED EVENING ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND ALL OF AR/NE TX.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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