Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070947
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/SERN CO/SRN KS/OK/W TX AND
NCNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KT TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LEE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...WHILE DRYLINE
BECOMES WELL DEFINED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD INTO KS. VERY STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
MIXED LAYER DEEPENS. DESPITE RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE AREA
TODAY. IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRE...A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS WILL ALSO EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF
SW/CNTRL OK INTO KS BY LATE AFTN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NM/SERN CO/SRN KS/OK/W TX AND
NCNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/EXTREME
LONG TERM DROUGHT
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHTENING DEWPOINT GRADIENT
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 20S IN NE OK TO NEAR 60 IN SW OK.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ACROSS FAR W TX AND PORTIONS OF NM WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER. ALTHOUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
WILL HAVE HIGHER RH LEVELS DUE TO NWD MOVING WARM FRONT...SFC WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO 50KT LOW LEVEL
JET.
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SW TX INTO EXTREME WRN OK BY AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY BEHIND THE DRYLINE...WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES RANGING FROM 5-15 PERCENT AND WLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL TEND TO VEER SLIGHTLY FROM SELY TO S/SWLY DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A LARGE NUMBER OF LARGE FIRES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND
ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY/WARM WEATHER WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF ISOLD TSTMS DO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WOULD BE FROM NEAR LAWTON TO WICHITA BY LATE THIS AFTN. ANY
TSTMS WOULD BRING A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING.
...FL...
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH TODAY...ALONG WITH
DECREASING RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT. RECENT KBDI VALUES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 300 ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN FL.
..TAYLOR.. 03/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071049
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE NM/FAR W TX INTO TX
PANHANDLE/EXTREME WRN OK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/CNTRL AND WRN OK/SRN KS/FAR W
TX INTO NCNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE WINDY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NM/OK/TX. WRN UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH AN 80-90 KT JET MAX
AT MID LEVELS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY WED EVENING. AHEAD
OF TROUGH...STRONG /60-70KT/ SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH
OF TX INTO THE OH VALLEY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
EWD ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. SFC DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL
OK...WHILE COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INVOF OF DRYLINE...BUT A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT STORMS UNTIL LATE AFTN/EVENING.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SE NM/FAR W TX INTO TX
PANHANDLE/EXTREME WRN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-35 MPH/MINIMUM RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...WINDS WILL ALSO SHARPLY
CHANGE DIRECTION FROM S/SWLY TO WLY AS DRYLINE MIXES EWD. MAX TEMPS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH IS MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/ WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR W TX AND NM. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT /IN THE 40-50KT RANGE/ TO MIX DOWN TO
LOWER LEVELS...YIELDING VERY STRONG SFC WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NM/CNTRL AND WRN OK/SRN KS/FAR W
TX INTO NCNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
IN THE REGION SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS NM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ACROSS CNTRL
AND NERN PORTIONS OF NM...GENERALLY IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE VERY DRY /LESS THAN 15
PERCENT/ WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER EAST...FROM THE
TX HILL COUNTRY NWD INTO OK...MAX TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TUE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX FARTHER EWD THAN
ON TUE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO
FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF OK SWD TO ABI/SJT.
WINDS ACROSS ERN OK AND THE REST OF NCNTRL TX WILL BE STRONG...BUT
THIS REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST AIR SO DOMINANT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES.
...ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARKS...
STRONG SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION THUS
RAISING THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S WILL RESULT IN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY WED EVENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND ALL OF AR/NE TX.
..TAYLOR.. 03/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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