Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 081005
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE NM/FAR W TX INTO TX
   PANHANDLE/EXTREME WRN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/CNTRL AND WRN OK/SRN KS/FAR W
   TX INTO NCNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED
   80KT SPEED MAX ACROSS NRN AZ. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY...EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DRYLINE NOW EXTENDS FROM SW KS INTO
   WRN OK/W TX EAST OF A DDC/CDS/INK LINE. THE DRYLINE WILL BE AN
   IMPORTANT FACTOR AS IT MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL OK THIS AFTN BECAUSE OF
   THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND RAPIDLY FALLING DEWPOINTS. EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
   NM/FAR W TX THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OK BEHIND
   THE DRYLINE. FARTHER EAST...RH VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT
   THE COMBINATION OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE/EXTREME LONG
   TERM DROUGHT WILL NEVERTHELESS COMPLICATE WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION
   EFFORTS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SE NM/FAR W TX INTO TX
   PANHANDLE/EXTREME WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH/RH VALUES BELOW 15
   PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   RECORD HIGH TEMPS WERE OBSERVED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON TUE. WHILE
   SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...VALUES WILL STILL BE
   15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WILL ALLOW THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO APPROACH 500 MB WHERE WIND
   SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 30-35KT. HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL EASILY BE MIXED
   DOWN TO LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH.
   IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL VEER BEHIND THE DRY LINE TO SWLY AND THIS
   NARROW ZONE WILL MARK A DANGEROUS WIND SHIFT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NM/CNTRL AND WRN OK/SRN KS/FAR W
   TX INTO NCNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
   WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S ARE EXPECTED...AND THE
   CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE EXTENDED FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...LONG TERM
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX PER DATA FROM THE
   NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR...AND ONGOING FIRES ARE MORE NUMEROUS AS
   WELL.
   
   ...ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARKS...
   STRONG SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION THUS
   RAISING THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRE TODAY. HOWEVER SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S WILL RESULT IN A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY WED EVENING ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND ALL OF AR/NE TX.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 081028
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0428 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND ERN NM/FAR W INTO NW TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE AT THE START
   OF THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT JET MAX EXTENDING FROM FAR
   W TX INTO NCNTRL TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   BY EVENING...BUT NEXT JET MAX WILL ARRIVE IN NM BY AFTN. THOUGH MAX
   TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...STRONG
   WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA
   COINCIDENT WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN AND ERN NM/FAR W INTO NW TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS 15-25 MPH/MINIMUM RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
   ERN PLAINS OF NM/FAR W TX AND NOT MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE. THIS WILL YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT
   RANGE. STRONG DIURNAL MIXING WILL OCCUR ALLOWING STRONG WLY WINDS TO
   DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. MAX WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30-35
   MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...ERN KY/SW VA/ERN TN...
   STRONG SLY SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
   AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
   WILL MOVE ALONG THE OH RIVER FURTHER INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT.
   TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 40S WHICH WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO
   AROUND 35-40 PERCENT. SEVERAL LARGE FIRES HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS
   THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON THU NIGHT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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