Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100923
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/SERN CO/SW KS/OK
   PANHANDLE/FAR W TX THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN
   AND CNTRL OK/FAR W TX THROUGH NCNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS A
   RATHER LARGE PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILER DATA DEPICT A VIGOROUS JET STREAK NOW
   APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDS AT MID LEVELS WILL
   APPROACH 100 KT OVER NM AND AZ AS THIS JET ADVANCES EWD INTO THE
   HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...A JET STREAK /70-80KT/ WILL
   EXTEND FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
   SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SE CO TODAY...FURTHER INCREASING
   THE WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM/SERN CO/SW KS/OK
   PANHANDLE/FAR W TX THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 25-40 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   WIND PROFILER DATA ALREADY INDICATE 50 KT OF FLOW OVER AZ AT
   3000-4000 FEET...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SPEED MAX. ORIENTATION AND
   TIMING OF THIS JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL TODAY. LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DRY ADIABATIC...WITH MIXING LEVELS RANGING
   FROM 550-700MB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF CO AND NM. THIS
   WILL ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO BE MIXED TO THE SFC...SUPPORTING
   SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH. MUCH HIGHER GUSTS /NEAR 50-60 MPH/ ARE
   EXPECTED NEAR FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS MTN PASSES. WITHIN THE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
   FORECAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE
   10-15 PERCENT RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SEVERAL
   MONTHS...AND EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST. DANGEROUS
   WILDFIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NM/SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN
   AND CNTRL OK/FAR W TX THROUGH NCNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES 15-20 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SFC WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND RH VALUES HIGHER THAN POINTS FARTHER
   WEST. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS REGION SUFFERS FROM EXTREME LONG TERM
   DROUGHT AS WELL...AND THE CONTINUED PATTERN OF WINDY AND DRY DAYS
   SUPPORTS A CRITICAL AREA TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE SIDE LOW.
   RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST IN CNTRL KS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE IS DEEPER AND MAX TEMPS COOLER. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
   CNTRL/WRN OK AND NCNTRL TX...MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S/80S
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S WITH MIN RH AROUND 15-20 PERCENT.
   THESE TEMPS ARE NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
   NUMEROUS WILDFIRES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE WINDY AND
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMPLICATE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.
   
   ...NRN VA/WRN MD/PORTIONS OF PA...
   THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS OVER THE CUMBERLAND
   PLATEAU AND ERN KY/SWRN VA ON THU WILL BE OVER NRN VA/MD/PA TODAY.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30-35
   PERCENT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES TO NEARLY 700MB. WIND
   SPEEDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE 50-60 KT BY AFTERNOON...AND STRONG SFC
   WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
   ARE FORECAST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS NRN VA/MD. RECENT FIRE
   DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS ARE HIGH/VERY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...AND
   THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DRIVEN
   FIRE.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/10/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100924
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AND FAR W
   TX/WRN OK/SW KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WEST...WHICH
   WILL ALLOW SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST AND PLAINS. THE NEXT JET MAX IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN
   NM/AZ BY SAT AFTN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
   MIDWEST. AT LOWER LEVELS...SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH STRONG SFC WINDS ACROSS ERN NM/SW KS AND WRN OK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AND FAR W
   TX/WRN OK/SW KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-30 MPH/MINIMUM RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY ACROSS ERN NM...BEHIND A COLD
   FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SAT.
   HOWEVER...SFC WINDS WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED VALUES
   OF 20-30 MPH IN ERN NM. ELSEWHERE SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25
   MPH. TEMPERATURES FARTHER EAST ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF TX AND WRN OK
   WILL BE WARMER /MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S/. MINIMUM RH VALUES
   WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE AS AIRMASS REMAINS
   QUITE DRY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LESS SEVERE THAN ON FRIDAY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/10/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home