Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111039
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR NUMBERED AREAS ON GRAPHIC
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN NM/TX
   PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AND FAR W
   TX/WRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WHICH
   WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS TO MOVE ACROSS
   THE SW AND GREAT PLAINS. THE NEXT JET MAX SHOULD REACH ERN NM/TX
   PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SE CO. STRONG SFC WINDS AND
   ASSOCIATED LOW RH WILL BE PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM/TX
   PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / LONG-TERM
   DROUGHT
   
   A CONTINUATION OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED IN AN AXIS OF VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
   VERY LOW RH. MIN RH VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 8-10 PERCENT
   WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WIND PROFILER
   DATA ALREADY INDICATE 50 KT WINDS OVER SRN NM AROUND 6000
   FEET...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE TIMING
   OF THIS JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS ACROSS FAR ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MIXING OF THE HIGHER
   MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30
   MPH...AND HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH. WHILE THE MOST
   CRITICAL FIRE THREAT WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO EARLY EVENING. POOR RH RECOVERY IS
   FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS
   SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AND FAR W
   TX/WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT WITH SPEEDS OF 20
   TO 25 MPH LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINIMUM RH
   VALUES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S
   AND 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS SUPPORTS A
   CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. FAVORED LOCATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE
   SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE EVEN STRONGER WINDS...BUT HIGHER MIN
   RH VALUES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111033
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN NM/NW TX/SW
   KS/CNTRL OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT EAST OUT OF THE WRN
   CONUS. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO BE
   CENTERED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO CNTRL KS ON SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SE CO AND LIFT NE INTO
   NE KS. VERY STRONG AND DRY W/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF
   THIS LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / LONG-TERM
   DROUGHT
   
   ANOTHER DAY IN A SERIES OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW RH EVENTS
   IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK...AS
   THE WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EAST. VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
   WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO
   35 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. MIN RH
   VALUES WILL REACH 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
   LOWER 70S. CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE WITH
   THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE
   NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM/NW TX/SW
   KS/CNTRL OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   STRONG W/SW WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS IN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS TO
   AROUND 40 MPH. HOWEVER...MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT QUITE
   AS LOW...WITH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THIS WILL STILL
   SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...A
   COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE
   NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL WITH RH LEVELS INCREASING
   ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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