Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120950
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/WRN
   OK/SW KS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN NM/SE CO/SRN
   KS/CNTRL OK/WRN AND N-CNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT EAST OUT OF THE WRN CONUS INTO
   THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAK IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED FROM ERN NM NEWD THROUGH THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES INTO CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
   DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO AND LIFT ENE INTO NE KS BY THIS EVENING. VERY
   STRONG AND DRY W/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE S OF THIS LOW ACROSS A
   LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/WRN
   OK/SW KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   A VERY STRONG WIND EVENT COMBINED WITH LOW RH WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT WIND PROFILER DATA OVER
   ERN NM ALREADY SHOW 60 MPH WINDS AT AROUND 3000 FEET JUST AHEAD OF
   AN APPROACHING SPEED MAX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TOWARDS
   THE SURFACE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
   LIKELY WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. THE DRYLINE WILL QUICKLY SURGE EAST
   OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOWERING DEW
   POINTS BY MID-MORNING. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
   TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL AND RH VALUES INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
   A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM/SE CO/SRN
   KS/CNTRL OK/WRN AND N-CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   STRONG W/SW WINDS COMBINED WITH THESE LOW RH VALUES WILL CAUSE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN
   THIS AREA SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   AREA...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL STILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10
   PERCENT IN THE ERN NM/WRN TX AREA...WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
   PERCENT FROM SRN KS INTO CNTRL OK. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...A COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NW. TEMPERATURES
   WILL RAPIDLY COOL WITH RH LEVELS INCREASING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/12/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 121016
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE
   GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE ZONAL FLOW
   ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   MITIGATING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OF THE PAST SEVERAL
   DAYS.
   
   ...S-CNTRL TX...
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH CNTRL/SRN TX
   EARLY MONDAY. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP DEW
   POINTS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MIN RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
   STRONG THE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
   AROUND 20 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE RH VALUES
   FALL TO CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE AREA.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/12/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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