Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160900
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN KS / CENTRAL AND WRN OK /
   PORTIONS OF NW TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FAST MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
   MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM IA/MO BORDER AREA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
   AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD OUT OF
   CANADA WITH DRY AIR PUSHING SWD BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS. FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL WEAKEN
   AND ALLOW RH LEVELS TO RISE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH WEAKER
   WINDS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FARTHER
   WEST...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...AND
   WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND.
   
   LATE IN THE PERIOD...MOIST SELY FLOW WILL INITIATE MUCH NEEDED RAIN
   ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN TX...AS WELL AS NM. THERE COULD EVEN
   BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER SWRN NM LATE IN THE DAY...AS
   MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN KS / CENTRAL AND WRN OK /
   PORTIONS OF NW TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE NLY WINDS AND LOW RH WITH ONGOING FIRE
   - STRONG INSOLATION
   
   COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LOW RH
   VALUES AND STRONG INSOLATION WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
   TODAY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN MO SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND
   INTO NWRN TX EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD WITH WINDS
   SHIFTING TO THE N. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
   THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WHEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE
   COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY ACROSS SRN KS AND OK.
   WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...BUT SOME OF
   THE DRIEST AIR WILL RESIDE HERE...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DRY ADIABATIC AND WILL FAVOR FIRE GROWTH.
   UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY MORNING INDICATE AN
   EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THUS...DESPITE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
   THE 60S...RH LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. IN ADDITION...STRONG
   SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO HEAT SURFACE FUELS.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY WITH MIN
   VALUES MAINLY NEAR 20-25 PERCENT CAROLINAS TO 25-30 PERCENT NRN FL.
   WINDS WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS. 
   
   ...SWRN NM / SERN AZ...
   COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
   WEAK MOIST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
   GENERAL SWLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
   CONVECTION...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   HIGH TERRAIN AND FAVORING S AND W FACING SLOPES. SURFACE RH VALUES
   WILL BE IN THE TEENS...AND FUELS ARE QUITE DRY...THUS ANY STRIKES
   MAY INITIATE A FIRE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/16/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160901
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WHILE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS
   TO ENTER THE GREAT BASIN. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
   INCREASE SWLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SRN AZ AND NM WHERE IT WILL
   REMAIN DRY...WHILE RAIN FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND OK.
   MEANWHILE...MODERATE NWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SERN STATES
   WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW...AND WITH MODERATELY LOW
   RH VALUES.
   
   ...SRN AZ AND SWRN NM...
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE ON
   FRIDAY TO 15-20 MPH WHILE RH DROPS TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND WITH A MODERATE HAINES INDEX AT
   BEST. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE ELEVATED.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NWLY FLOW
   AT THE SURFACE. RH LEVELS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT IN
   GENERAL AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. SUSTAINED NWLY
   WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MPH DURING THE DAY BEFORE DYING DOWN IN THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/16/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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