Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170902
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE MS
   VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIAN STATES TODAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS
   DRY. TO THE WEST...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
    THE SWRN U.S. AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO CA AND THE GREAT
   BASIN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BRING GULF
   MOISTURE NWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER W
   TX...SPREADING INTO OK FRIDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...NRN FL / GA / CAROLINAS / VA / MD...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
   FAIRLY DRY. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 35 PERCENT OVER NRN FL
   AND BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT POINTS N. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT
   WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH WIND AND RH WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A CRITICAL OUTLOOK...THERE
   WILL BE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   
   ...SWRN NM AND SERN AZ...
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH
   TO THE WEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...WHILE RH LEVELS DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
   LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVELS FROM BECOMING TOO UNSTABLE
   WHICH WILL TEND TO REDUCE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
   KEEPING RH FROM BECOMING CRITICALLY LOW.
   
   ...OK / AR / N TX...
   IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF
   THE N...PRODUCING ELY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH LEVELS WILL BE
   HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT 25-35 PERCENT. THUS...FIRE THREAT WILL BE
   REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY.
   
   ...PA AND NJ...
   STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST HERE TODAY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER
   S...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND
   IN THE 40S...RH WILL STILL DROP TO MARGINALLY LOW VALUES NEAR 25
   PERCENT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170902
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM AND EL PASO AREA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF VA / NRN NC / SRN MD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN
   STATES WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW OVER NM WHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. TO
   THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE
   COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL BE UNDERNEATH LARGE UPPER
   LOW. LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH
   INCREASED WINDS FROM MD INTO NC. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
   COUNTRY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FROM KS
   INTO TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NM AND EL PASO AREA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH / EXTREME DROUGHT
   
   WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL INCREASE AS UPPER JET
   STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY DURING
   THE MORNING...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AND BY
   AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SUNSHINE AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH RH LEVELS
   DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. RH LEVELS MAY BE MARGINAL IN SOME
   AREAS...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT DROUGHT...CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
   LIKELY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - MUCH OF VA / NRN NC / SRN MD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / MODERATE WLY WINDS / DROUGHT
   
   LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN WLY
   FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. RH
   LEVELS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY...WITH
   MINIMUM VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT. FURTHER...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
   WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 MPH OVER MD TO 15 MPH
   OVER NRN NC. COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SC / GA / FL...
   WINDS WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
   OVERHEAD. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM 25
   PERCENT OVER SC TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR FL. GIVEN DRY AIR
   MASS AND RECENT DROUGHT...A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING
   THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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