Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190847
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR VA/MUCH OF MD/EASTERN PA/NJ/DE/FAR
EASTERN WV/NORTHERN NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. MUCH NEEDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA/TEXAS AND ARKLATEX VICINITY.
ELSEWHERE...UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - VA/MUCH OF MD/EASTERN PA/NJ/DE/FAR
EASTERN WV/NORTHERN NC...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OWING TO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
STRONG CYCLONIC BELT OF LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WITH AMPLE MIXING...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH /WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS/ ARE AGAIN LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MD/PA/NJ/DE/NORTHERN VA. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA/NJ/MD...TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS VA/NORTHERN NC.
...EASTERN NM/WEST TX...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE
PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM. HOWEVER CLOUD
COVER WILL TEND TO DETER DEEPER MIXING/WIND GUST POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER/SUFFICIENTLY HIGH RH VALUES...SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AND CONTINUING POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
...SC/SOUTHERN NC...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
DURATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER LIGHT WINDS /5-10 MPH/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..GUYER.. 03/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190854
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST/WEST
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY...REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COPIOUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...SECONDARY
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF CA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST/WEST
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RH
VERY STRONG WEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO
WEST/CENTRAL TX ON MONDAY IN PRESENCE OF DRYING AIRMASS IN WAKE OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT/DRYLINE CROSSING THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL
TX...AND THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK WILL BE REEVALUATED/REFINED
ACCORDINGLY IN THE SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
...CENTRAL TX...
IN A SCENARIO OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS...EXTENT OF WEEKEND PRECIPITATION MAKES FOR A HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
GIVEN EXPECTED RAINFALL...SOUTH CENTRAL TX MAY HAVE THE RELATIVELY
GREATEST THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TX. MORE COPIOUS RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TX...WITH MOIST FINE FUELS LIKELY TO INHIBIT
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
...VA/MD/DE/NJ/SOUTHEAST PA/FAR SOUTHERN NY...
A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON MONDAY WITH A PERSISTENCE OF WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES. SLIGHTER HIGHER DEWPOINTS/AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND MORE
MODEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VA/MD...SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MARGINAL. RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA/NJ INTO FAR SOUTHERN NY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOL IN THE 40S.
..GUYER.. 03/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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